From 9fae859c0d27065c9f8f1b4a8985d11a9668acde Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Francisco Solla Date: Fri, 9 Oct 2026 03:34:00 -0300 Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?feat(relatorio-cidade):=20leva=20o=202=C2=BA=20?= =?UTF-8?q?turno=20(Lula=20=C3=97=20Fl=C3=A1vio)=20ao=20relat=C3=B3rio?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Artefato oficial por unidade (município e ZE de Salvador): TSE 2026 presidente por seção + Solla 2026 e a fatia de 2022 da análise 2º turno; cada número validado contra o baseline TSE e os totais da BA pinados (pnpm build:second-round). O relatório ganha a seção "2º turno no município (Lula × Flávio)" com X₁/X₂ pela mesma fórmula do /potencial, o papel determinístico da cidade (prioridade/mobilizacao/defesa/expansao) e o novo item de pesquisa segundo_turno (movimento local com fonte); a seção fica fora da página 1 porque é determinística e a página 1 falha fechada por medição. --- .agents/skills/relatorio-cidade/SKILL.md | 94 +- .opencode/agent/relatorio-cidade.md | 7 + package.json | 1 + scripts/build-second-round-ba.mjs | 354 + scripts/lib/cityReportBlocks.mjs | 222 + scripts/lib/cityReportResearch.mjs | 4 + src/lib/bahiaSecondRound.ts | 111 + .../bahia-second-round-2026.json | 11787 ++++++++++++++++ src/lib/secondRoundRole.ts | 60 + tests/unit/bahiaSecondRound.unit.spec.ts | 93 + tests/unit/cityReportBatchSkill.unit.spec.ts | 22 + tests/unit/cityReportBlocks.unit.spec.ts | 57 +- tests/unit/cityReportRender.unit.spec.ts | 14 +- tests/unit/cityReportResearch.unit.spec.ts | 4 + 14 files changed, 12804 insertions(+), 26 deletions(-) create mode 100644 scripts/build-second-round-ba.mjs create mode 100644 src/lib/bahiaSecondRound.ts create mode 100644 src/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-second-round-2026.json create mode 100644 src/lib/secondRoundRole.ts create mode 100644 tests/unit/bahiaSecondRound.unit.spec.ts diff --git a/.agents/skills/relatorio-cidade/SKILL.md b/.agents/skills/relatorio-cidade/SKILL.md index fe20f2ea..92e02761 100644 --- a/.agents/skills/relatorio-cidade/SKILL.md +++ b/.agents/skills/relatorio-cidade/SKILL.md @@ -20,6 +20,49 @@ URL por item) e emendas lidas da fonte oficial **em tempo de geração**. Págin local). O PDF sai para leitura de bolso; o detalhe das etapas está em "Pipeline (etapas)". +## Missão do 2º turno (Lula × Flávio — 25/10/2026) + +A partir de 08/10/2026 o relatório não é só pré-viagem de mandato: **cada visita +também serve à eleição de Lula no 2º turno**. O produto carrega o recorte +oficial do 1º turno de 2026 na seção **"2º turno no município (Lula × Flávio)"** +(nº 2, logo depois da conta eleitoral), com: + +- **Números oficiais por unidade** (município ou ZE de Salvador, na mesma + geografia do catálogo): Lula 2022→2026, adversário (Bolsonaro→Flávio), Solla + 1313, comparecimento, abstenção, brancos+nulos e o cenário **X₁/X₂** do + `/potencial` — a MESMA fórmula da página pública, nunca uma segunda conta. + Fonte: artefato commitado `src/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-second-round-2026.json` + (loader `src/lib/bahiaSecondRound.ts`), gerado por `pnpm build:second-round` a + partir do TSE 2026 por seção + da análise 2º turno + (`analise-eleicoes-2026/nota-solla-2turno`), com os totais da BA pinados. +- **Papel da cidade** (determinístico, `src/lib/secondRoundRole.ts`): + `prioridade` (Lula caiu, Solla cresceu com base ≥200 votos — agenda conjunta e + contato pessoal), `mobilizacao` (mesmo quadro, base menor), `defesa` (os dois + caíram — comparecimento e contenção, sem vitrine), `expansao` (Lula não caiu — + presença). +- **Movimento local (pesquisa):** o researcher preenche o item de checklist + `segundo_turno` (atos, palanques, posições de lideranças locais, o que o 2º + turno move na cidade), sempre com `sourceUrl` + `sourceDate`; sem fonte vira + lacuna explícita. + +Doutrina (de `PERSONA.md` e da nota): **interior = conversão (presença e +proteção); Salvador = comparecimento (mobilização)**; persuasão em eleição geral +tem efeito médio ~0 — o papel de Solla é **mobilizar, proteger e dar voz**, não +converter. `X₁`/`X₂` são **votos em jogo, não transferência garantida**; o +cenário de 2º turno é hipotético e a seção diz isso. Operação: redutos/vitrine +(onde Solla é a marca), cinturão do PT local, ZE de Salvador 19/15/9/12 +(mobilização) e contenção em 16/4. + +Regras duras da seção: + +- os números oficiais (Lula, Flávio, Solla, X₁/X₂) vêm do **artefato** — o + researcher **não** os pesquisa; ele pesquisa só o movimento local. +- não infira comportamento individual (falácia ecológica) nem prometa conversão; + a seção informa **onde mobilizar/proteger**, com a incerteza declarada. +- a seção **não entra na página 1**: a página 1 é medida e falha fechada, e + conteúdo determinístico não encolhe no fallback de texto; o dado de 2º turno + vive na seção própria. + ## Lote (várias cidades) A invocação aceita **um** município (caso de sempre) ou **vários**, separados por @@ -223,7 +266,8 @@ de pesquisa que cruza para ele. ``` Checklist (`id`s): `prefeito`, `vice`, `relacao_campo`, `vereadores`, -`disputa_local`, `quem_investe`, `noticias`, `imprensa_local`, `emendas_web`. +`disputa_local`, `segundo_turno`, `quem_investe`, `noticias`, `imprensa_local`, +`emendas_web`. Item sem `sourceUrl`/`sourceDate` é convertido em lacuna pelo validador; item ausente também. `approach`, `preCandidates`, `leaders`, `leaderAgenda` e `emendasIndicators` são @@ -236,6 +280,12 @@ não entra no PDF. Campos de texto livre (`detail`, `hook`, `suggestion`, `{{fonte:N}}`, resolvidos para `(fonte)` no ponto exato da citação (ver "Links clicáveis / fonte inline" adiante). +**`segundo_turno` — movimento local da disputa Lula × Flávio:** atos, palanques, +posições de lideranças locais e o que o 2º turno move na cidade, com URL+data. +Os números oficiais do bloco 2º turno (Lula/Flávio/Solla, X₁/X₂) vêm do +**artefato** (`pnpm build:second-round`) — **não** os pesquise nem os estime; a +pesquisa é só o movimento local. Sem fonte, vira lacuna explícita na seção. + **`leaderAgenda` — pauta provável das lideranças (rede + mesmo campo):** para cada liderança que importa na visita, registre o que ela tende a priorizar (Saúde, Educação, Infraestrutura…) e o **gancho recente publicado** que ancora a @@ -325,19 +375,24 @@ cacheado em `data/relatorios-cidade/.emendas.json` para replay. `vereadores`, `disputa_local`, `quem_investe`, `emendas_web`): é a única forma de a página 1 manter o texto que você redigiu. As listas mostram `e mais N`; o texto integral - de cada item fica no aprofundamento (ver "respostas integrais" em `14. Fontes e - limites`). -- **Seções 2+:** `1. Conta eleitoral` · `2. Concorrentes no município (federal + de cada item fica no aprofundamento (ver "respostas integrais" em "Fontes e + limites"). +- **Seções 2+:** `1. Conta eleitoral` · `2. 2º turno no município (Lula × + Flávio)` — números oficiais do artefato (Lula/adversário/Solla, + comparecimento, abstenção, brancos+nulos e X₁/X₂), o papel da cidade + (`prioridade`/`mobilizacao`/`defesa`/`expansao`) e o **movimento local + pesquisado** (`segundo_turno`), com o cenário rotulado como hipotético · + `3. Concorrentes no município (federal e estadual)` — top 5 por votos de 2022 na base TSE, com série 2014/2018/2022 e os prováveis candidatos do campo do prefeito (pesquisa), além da **frente de - oposição** quando pesquisada (fatos com fonte) · `3. Rede e + oposição** quando pesquisada (fatos com fonte) · `4. Rede e lideranças` — inclui as lideranças locais pesquisadas (ex-prefeitos/vices, vereadores mais votados, com partido) e a **Pauta das lideranças (pesquisa)**: pauta provável + gancho recente por liderança da rede/mesmo campo, marcada - como hipótese · `4. Conjuntura` · `5. Sinais` · `6. - Demandas e visitas` · `7. Demografia` — IBGE Censo 2022 do artefato + - **complemento pesquisado** (cor/raça e poder aquisitivo) · `8. Atividade - econômica (pesquisa)` · `9. Transporte e conexões (pesquisa)` · `10. Acervo + como hipótese · `5. Conjuntura` · `6. Sinais` · `7. + Demandas e visitas` · `8. Demografia` — IBGE Censo 2022 do artefato + + **complemento pesquisado** (cor/raça e poder aquisitivo) · `9. Atividade + econômica (pesquisa)` · `10. Transporte e conexões (pesquisa)` · `11. Acervo de falas` — cada fala com "O que é" (sumário oficial) e "Menção ao município" (passagem que cita a cidade ou, se o nome não aparece nos trechos, a marcação do acervo com o nº de municípios), mais **Vídeo** (YouTube no trecho da fala @@ -346,8 +401,8 @@ cacheado em `data/relatorios-cidade/.emendas.json` para replay. depois do `eventStartAt`, então 645s viram `t=608s` (`YOUTUBE_VIDEO_OFFSET_SECONDS`); o `speechAt` da API é o horário do slot, não o início real; fallback para o VOD da Câmara, que é o clipe do próprio trecho) e **Transcrição** (PDF do - Diário) quando existirem · `11. Notícias e imprensa` · - `12. Panorama regional` · `13. Abordagem sugerida (personas)` · `14. Fontes e + Diário) quando existirem · `12. Notícias e imprensa` · + `13. Panorama regional` · `14. Abordagem sugerida (personas)` · `15. Fontes e limites` — lista as fontes e, antes delas, a tabela **"Pesquisa — respostas integrais"** com o texto completo de cada item do checklist (o que a página 1 capou). @@ -410,6 +465,12 @@ cacheado em `data/relatorios-cidade/.emendas.json` para replay. ataque pessoal. Prioriza o local (operadores na região) sobre o líder estadual e sinaliza temas de mão dupla; onde a marca do adversário domina, o insumo é para contraste, não para confronto frontal. +- **2º turno é cenário, não promessa**: X₁/X₂ são votos em jogo (fórmula do + `/potencial`), nunca transferência garantida; a seção é determinística (TSE + oficial no artefato) — o researcher pesquisa só o movimento local e o PDF + declara a incerteza. Não se infere comportamento individual (falácia + ecológica) nem se propõe persuasão onde a evidência diz efeito ~0: o papel de + Solla é mobilizar, proteger e dar voz. - **Falha isolada no lote**: cidade que falha (token inválido/ambíguo, pesquisa sem fonte suficiente, snapshot×research mismatch) não cancela as demais; o summary final diz explicitamente o que saiu e o que falhou (sucesso parcial @@ -419,11 +480,20 @@ cacheado em `data/relatorios-cidade/.emendas.json` para replay. ## Troubleshooting +- **Seção 2º turno saiu como lacuna**: a unidade não está no artefato oficial — + rode `pnpm build:second-round -- --analysis-dir=` + (o comando valida totais e versões) e verifique `municipalityCatalog` × + artefato (o teste `tests/unit/bahiaSecondRound.unit.spec.ts` cobre o catálogo). +- **Movimento local "Não pesquisado."**: o researcher não preencheu o item + `segundo_turno`; é lacuna de pesquisa, não falha do build — repita a pesquisa + com fonte datada. - **Página 1 estourou**: o builder aborta com `scrollHeight > útil` e o erro é açãoável. A página 1 já aplica tetos de conteúdo aos textos da pesquisa (`PAGE_ONE_*_MAX` em `scripts/lib/cityReportBlocks.mjs`) e preserva o texto integral no aprofundamento; se ainda estourar, **aperte o teto da pesquisa ou - corte copy do resumo — nunca mexa no layout para "espremer"**. + corte copy do resumo — nunca mexa no layout para "espremer"**. O bloco 2º turno + vive na seção própria (nunca na página 1) justamente porque é determinístico e + não encolhe no fallback. - **`tsx` ausente no homeserver**: `pnpm install --prod=false`. - **API de emendas 429/erro**: o builder degrada para lacuna com URL+motivo; reexecute depois (o cache só é escrito com resultado utilizável). diff --git a/.opencode/agent/relatorio-cidade.md b/.opencode/agent/relatorio-cidade.md index a03fe03f..63ea4365 100644 --- a/.opencode/agent/relatorio-cidade.md +++ b/.opencode/agent/relatorio-cidade.md @@ -17,6 +17,10 @@ cidades em paralelo. 2. Fazer a **pesquisa web datada** e escrever `data/relatorios-cidade/.research.json` no contrato da skill — item sem `sourceUrl`/`sourceDate` não vai para o arquivo (vira lacuna explícita). + O checklist inclui **`segundo_turno`** — o movimento local da disputa Lula × + Flávio na cidade (atos, palanques, posições de lideranças locais), com fonte + e data por fato. Os **números oficiais** de 2º turno (Lula/Flávio/Solla, + X₁/X₂) vêm do artefato do builder — não os pesquise nem os estime. 3. Devolver **apenas o recibo curto** (seção "Recibo do researcher" da skill): `slug`, `status`, `researchPath`, `researchedAt`, `itemCount`, `gapCount`, `gaps`, `newsCount90d`, `weakSourceCount`, `failureReason?`. **Nunca** devolva @@ -32,4 +36,7 @@ cidades em paralelo. — artefato gitignored). - Não invente fato sem fonte; não trate empenho como pagamento; não inclua telefone/e-mail de liderança. +- No 2º turno, não prometa transferência de voto nem infira comportamento + individual: o item `segundo_turno` é **fato datado** (ato, palanque, posição + pública), não análise de cenário nem estimativa de efeito. - Não edite os scripts nem o layout do relatório para "caber". diff --git a/package.json b/package.json index 491c8dce..1532259e 100644 --- a/package.json +++ b/package.json @@ -64,6 +64,7 @@ "build:election-aggregates": "cross-env NODE_OPTIONS=\"--no-deprecation --import=tsx/esm --import=./scripts/seed-loader.mjs\" node scripts/build-election-aggregates.mjs", "build:geometries": "cross-env NODE_OPTIONS=\"--no-deprecation --import=tsx/esm\" node scripts/build-bahia-geometries.mjs", "build:potencial-secoes": "cross-env NODE_OPTIONS=\"--no-deprecation --import=tsx/esm\" node scripts/build-potencial-secoes-2026.mjs", + "build:second-round": "cross-env NODE_OPTIONS=\"--no-deprecation --import=tsx/esm\" node scripts/build-second-round-ba.mjs", "build:state-deputy-card-assets": "cross-env NODE_OPTIONS=\"--no-deprecation --import=tsx/esm\" node scripts/build-state-deputy-card-assets.mjs", "build:municipality-zone-geometries": "cross-env NODE_OPTIONS=\"--no-deprecation --import=tsx/esm\" node scripts/build-municipality-zone-geometries.mjs", "build:tse-city-codes": "cross-env NODE_OPTIONS=\"--no-deprecation --import=tsx/esm\" node scripts/build-bahia-tse-city-codes.mjs", diff --git a/scripts/build-second-round-ba.mjs b/scripts/build-second-round-ba.mjs new file mode 100644 index 00000000..14eeea0c --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/build-second-round-ba.mjs @@ -0,0 +1,354 @@ +/** + * Builds the committed 2º-turno artifact (`bahia-second-round-2026.json`): + * Lula × Flávio in Bahia, 2022 → 1º turno 2026, cut by the same + * `municipalityCatalog` geography the campaign uses (Salvador split by ZE). + * + * Why an artifact: the campaign DB has Solla 2014/2018/2022 and the 2026 + * estimates, and the official presidential 1º turno 2026 lives in the committed + * `public/dados/potencial-secao-2026/BA.json` (per section). Solla's official + * 2026 federal result and the 2022 adversary slice come from the internal + * analysis repo (analise-eleicoes-2026 / nota-solla-2turno). This builder joins + * the two, validates each 2026 number against an independent source, cross-checks + * 2022 against `bahia-federal-baseline.json` and pins the BA totals. + * + * Inputs: + * - public/dados/potencial-secao-2026/BA.json TSE 2026 presidente T1 (por seção) + * - src/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-federal-baseline.json Solla/Lula 2022 (cross-check) + * - --analysis-dir= outputs of analise-eleicoes-2026 (default ../analise-eleicoes-2026/bahia): + * solla_municipios.csv, ba_ausentes_bn.csv, salvador_ze_v3.csv, solla_ze_salvador.csv + * + * Output: src/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-second-round-2026.json + * Uso: pnpm build:second-round -- [--analysis-dir=] [--check] + * + * Never runs at build/deploy time — the artifact is committed (same rule as + * `pnpm build:election-aggregates`). + */ + +import { readFile } from 'node:fs/promises' +import { dirname, join, resolve } from 'node:path' +import { fileURLToPath } from 'node:url' + +import { parse as parseCsvSync } from 'csv-parse/sync' + +import { dieWithLabel, parseEqualsFlags, writeRepoFile } from './lib/cli.mjs' + +const ROOT = join(dirname(fileURLToPath(import.meta.url)), '..') +const LABEL = 'build-second-round-ba' +const die = dieWithLabel(LABEL) + +const ARTIFACT_PATH = 'src/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-second-round-2026.json' +const SHARD_PATH = 'public/dados/potencial-secao-2026/BA.json' +const BASELINE_PATH = 'src/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-federal-baseline.json' +const DEFAULT_ANALYSIS_DIR = resolve(ROOT, '..', 'analise-eleicoes-2026', 'bahia') + +/** + * Audited Bahia totals (TSE, 1º turno 2026, 100% apurado) — sum over the 435 + * catalog units (Salvador once, through its 19 ZE). Any divergence aborts the + * build: a re-published bulk or a changed analysis must be a deliberate PR. + */ +const BA_PINS = { + aptos26: 11_312_752, + comparecimento26: 9_053_601, + lula26: 5_664_771, + adversary26: 2_442_585, + validos26: 8_560_542, + lula22: 5_873_081, + adversary22: 2_047_599, + solla22: 128_968, + solla26: 152_049, +} + +const { municipalityCatalog } = await import('../src/lib/municipalityCatalog.ts') +const { classifySecondRoundRole } = await import('../src/lib/secondRoundRole.ts') + +const { flags } = parseEqualsFlags(process.argv.slice(2)) +const analysisDir = resolve( + ROOT, + typeof flags['analysis-dir'] === 'string' ? flags['analysis-dir'] : DEFAULT_ANALYSIS_DIR, +) +const checkOnly = flags.check === true + +const int = (value) => { + const parsed = Number(value) + if (!Number.isFinite(parsed)) die(`Número inválido: ${JSON.stringify(value)}`) + return Math.round(parsed) +} + +const readJson = async (relativePath) => { + try { + return JSON.parse(await readFile(resolve(ROOT, relativePath), 'utf8')) + } catch (error) { + die(`Falha ao ler ${relativePath}: ${error instanceof Error ? error.message : error}`) + } +} + +const readCsv = async (fileName) => { + const path = join(analysisDir, fileName) + let text + try { + text = await readFile(path, 'utf8') + } catch (error) { + die( + `Falha ao ler ${path}: ${error instanceof Error ? error.message : error}\n` + + ' Passe --analysis-dir=.', + ) + } + return parseCsvSync(text, { + columns: true, + delimiter: ';', + skip_empty_lines: true, + trim: true, + bom: true, + relax_quotes: true, + relax_column_count: true, + }) +} + +const indexBy = (rows, key) => { + const map = new Map() + for (const row of rows) map.set(String(row[key]), row) + return map +} + +/** + * 2026 president aggregates from the committed per-section shard: one pass over + * the 417 municipalities, accumulating `aptos, comparecimento, lula, flávio, + * válidos` per município and — for Salvador — per zone (the campaign unit). + */ +const aggregateShard = (shard) => { + const byMunicipality = new Map() + const salVadorByZone = new Map() + for (const municipality of shard.municipalities) { + const code = String(municipality.code) + const total = { aptos: 0, comparecimento: 0, lula: 0, adversary: 0, validos: 0 } + for (const [zone, , aptos, comparecimento, lula, adversary, validos] of municipality.sections) { + total.aptos += aptos + total.comparecimento += comparecimento + total.lula += lula + total.adversary += adversary + total.validos += validos + if (code === '38490') { + const zoneTotal = salVadorByZone.get(zone) ?? { + aptos: 0, + comparecimento: 0, + lula: 0, + adversary: 0, + validos: 0, + } + zoneTotal.aptos += aptos + zoneTotal.comparecimento += comparecimento + zoneTotal.lula += lula + zoneTotal.adversary += adversary + zoneTotal.validos += validos + salVadorByZone.set(zone, zoneTotal) + } + } + byMunicipality.set(code, total) + } + return { byMunicipality, salVadorByZone } +} + +const failCheck = (failures) => { + if (!failures.length) return + die( + `Divergência de validação (${failures.length}):\n ` + + failures + .slice(0, 20) + .map((line) => `- ${line}`) + .join('\n ') + + (failures.length > 20 ? `\n … e mais ${failures.length - 20}.` : ''), + ) +} + +const main = async () => { + const [shard, baseline] = await Promise.all([readJson(SHARD_PATH), readJson(BASELINE_PATH)]) + const [sollaMunicipios, ausentesBn, salvadorZe, sollaSalvadorZe] = await Promise.all([ + readCsv('solla_municipios.csv'), + readCsv('ba_ausentes_bn.csv'), + readCsv('salvador_ze_v3.csv'), + readCsv('solla_ze_salvador.csv'), + ]) + + const sollaByCity = indexBy(sollaMunicipios, 'cd_tse') + const ausByCity = indexBy(ausentesBn, 'cd') + const salZeByZone = indexBy(salvadorZe, 'zona') + const sollaSalZeByZone = indexBy(sollaSalvadorZe, 'zona') + const { byMunicipality, salVadorByZone } = aggregateShard(shard) + + const failures = [] + const units = {} + const totals = { + aptos22: 0, + aptos26: 0, + comparecimento22: 0, + comparecimento26: 0, + abstencao22: 0, + abstencao26: 0, + brancosNulos22: 0, + brancosNulos26: 0, + validos22: 0, + validos26: 0, + lula22: 0, + lula26: 0, + adversary22: 0, + adversary26: 0, + solla22: 0, + solla26: 0, + } + + for (const entry of municipalityCatalog) { + const isZone = entry.kind === 'zona' + const zoneNumber = entry.zoneNumber ?? null + const source = isZone ? sollaSalZeByZone.get(String(zoneNumber).padStart(4, '0')) : null + const analysis = isZone ? salZeByZone.get(String(zoneNumber).padStart(4, '0')) : null + const cityRow = isZone ? null : sollaByCity.get(entry.tseCityCode) + const ausRow = isZone ? null : ausByCity.get(entry.tseCityCode) + const shardRow = isZone ? salVadorByZone.get(zoneNumber) : byMunicipality.get(entry.tseCityCode) + + if (!shardRow) { + failures.push(`${entry.slug}: sem agregado de 2026 no shard oficial`) + continue + } + if (!isZone && (!cityRow || !ausRow)) { + failures.push(`${entry.slug}: sem linha na análise 2º turno (${entry.tseCityCode})`) + continue + } + if (isZone && (!source || !analysis)) { + failures.push(`${entry.slug}: sem linha da análise para a ZE ${zoneNumber}`) + continue + } + + // 2022: análise (primary) — one table per kind, validated below against the + // committed TSE baseline (Lula #13 and Solla 1313). + const lula22 = int(isZone ? analysis.lula22 : cityRow.lula22) + const adversary22 = int(isZone ? analysis.adv22 : cityRow.bolso22) + const solla22 = int(isZone ? source.solla22 : cityRow.solla22) + const aptos22 = int(isZone ? analysis.te22 : ausRow.aptos22) + const abstencao22 = int(isZone ? analysis.abst22 : ausRow.abst22) + const comparecimento22 = aptos22 - abstencao22 + const validos22 = int(isZone ? analysis.val22 : cityRow.validos22) + const brancosNulos22 = comparecimento22 - validos22 + + // 2026: shard oficial (per section) — the analysis numbers are the check. + const lula26 = shardRow.lula + const adversary26 = shardRow.adversary + const aptos26 = shardRow.aptos + const comparecimento26 = shardRow.comparecimento + const validos26 = shardRow.validos + const abstencao26 = aptos26 - comparecimento26 + const brancosNulos26 = comparecimento26 - validos26 + const solla26 = int(isZone ? source.solla26 : cityRow.solla26) + + if (!isZone) { + if (lula26 !== int(cityRow.lula26)) + failures.push(`${entry.slug}: Lula26 shard ${lula26} ≠ análise ${cityRow.lula26}`) + if (adversary26 !== int(cityRow.flavio26)) + failures.push(`${entry.slug}: Flávio26 shard ${adversary26} ≠ análise ${cityRow.flavio26}`) + if (aptos26 !== int(ausRow.aptos26)) + failures.push(`${entry.slug}: aptos26 shard ${aptos26} ≠ análise ${ausRow.aptos26}`) + if (comparecimento26 !== int(ausRow.aptos26) - int(ausRow.abst26)) + failures.push( + `${entry.slug}: comp26 shard ${comparecimento26} ≠ análise ${int(ausRow.aptos26) - int(ausRow.abst26)}`, + ) + } else { + if (lula26 !== int(analysis.lula26)) + failures.push(`${entry.slug}: Lula26 shard ${lula26} ≠ análise ${analysis.lula26}`) + if (adversary26 !== int(analysis.adv26)) + failures.push(`${entry.slug}: Flávio26 shard ${adversary26} ≠ análise ${analysis.adv26}`) + if (aptos26 !== int(analysis.te26)) + failures.push(`${entry.slug}: aptos26 shard ${aptos26} ≠ análise ${analysis.te26}`) + if (comparecimento26 !== int(analysis.comp26)) + failures.push( + `${entry.slug}: comp26 shard ${comparecimento26} ≠ análise ${analysis.comp26}`, + ) + } + + // 2022 cross-check against the committed Teqo baseline (independent source). + const baselineUnit = baseline.municipalities?.[entry.slug] + if (!baselineUnit) { + failures.push(`${entry.slug}: fora do baseline TSE 2014/2018/2022`) + } else { + const baselineSolla22 = baselineUnit.votesByYear?.['2022'] ?? null + if (baselineSolla22 !== solla22) + failures.push(`${entry.slug}: Solla22 baseline ${baselineSolla22} ≠ análise ${solla22}`) + const baselineLula22 = baselineUnit.majoritarian2022?.president?.votes ?? null + if (baselineLula22 !== lula22) + failures.push(`${entry.slug}: Lula22 baseline ${baselineLula22} ≠ análise ${lula22}`) + } + + const dLula = lula26 - lula22 + const dAdversary = adversary26 - adversary22 + const dSolla = solla26 - solla22 + const role = classifySecondRoundRole({ dLula, dSolla, solla26 }) + + units[entry.slug] = { + name: entry.name, + kind: entry.kind, + tseCityCode: entry.tseCityCode, + ibgeCode: entry.ibgeCode, + zone: zoneNumber, + role, + lula22, + lula26, + dLula, + adversary22, + adversary26, + dAdversary, + solla22, + solla26, + dSolla, + aptos22, + aptos26, + comparecimento22, + comparecimento26, + abstencao22, + abstencao26, + brancosNulos22, + brancosNulos26, + validos22, + validos26, + } + + for (const key of Object.keys(totals)) totals[key] += units[entry.slug][key] + } + + for (const [key, expected] of Object.entries(BA_PINS)) { + if (totals[key] !== expected) + failures.push(`total BA ${key}: esperado ${expected}, encontrado ${totals[key]}`) + } + failCheck(failures) + + const artifact = { + version: 1, + generatedAt: new Date().toISOString(), + scope: 'BA — 2º turno Lula × Flávio', + provenance: + 'TSE 2026 presidente 1º turno por seção (public/dados/potencial-secao-2026/BA.json, oficial) + análise 2º turno da campanha (analise-eleicoes-2026/nota-solla-2turno) para Solla 2026 e a fatia de 2022; 2022 validado contra bahia-federal-baseline.json.', + sources: { + shard: SHARD_PATH, + baseline: BASELINE_PATH, + analysisDir: + 'analise-eleicoes-2026/bahia (solla_municipios, ba_ausentes_bn, salvador_ze_v3, solla_ze_salvador)', + }, + pins: BA_PINS, + totals, + units, + } + + if (checkOnly) { + console.log(`[${LABEL}] OK — ${Object.keys(units).length} unidades, totais batem com os pins.`) + return + } + + await writeRepoFile({ + label: LABEL, + root: ROOT, + relativePath: ARTIFACT_PATH, + body: `${JSON.stringify(artifact, null, 2)}\n`, + }) + console.log( + `[${LABEL}] ${Object.keys(units).length} unidades · Lula ${totals.lula26} · Flávio ${totals.adversary26} · Solla ${totals.solla26}`, + ) +} + +await main() diff --git a/scripts/lib/cityReportBlocks.mjs b/scripts/lib/cityReportBlocks.mjs index d79eac75..cdb1bf62 100644 --- a/scripts/lib/cityReportBlocks.mjs +++ b/scripts/lib/cityReportBlocks.mjs @@ -10,6 +10,14 @@ */ import { getMunicipalityFederalBaseline } from '../../src/lib/bahiaElectionAggregates.ts' +import { + BAHIA_SECOND_ROUND_GENERATED_AT, + getBahiaSecondRoundUnit, + secondRoundAdversaryCapturePct, + secondRoundLulaShares, + secondRoundPotentialOf, + secondRoundSollaShareOfLula, +} from '../../src/lib/bahiaSecondRound.ts' import { formatEngagementLevelLabel } from '../../src/lib/engagementLevel.ts' import { getMunicipalityVoteRank } from '../../src/lib/municipalityVoteRank.ts' import { activityStatusLabels } from '../../src/lib/schemas/activity.ts' @@ -18,6 +26,7 @@ import { campaignDemandStatusLabels, } from '../../src/lib/schemas/campaignDemand.ts' import { municipalityUpdatePolarityLabels } from '../../src/lib/schemas/municipalityUpdate.ts' +import { secondRoundRoleGuidance, secondRoundRoleLabels } from '../../src/lib/secondRoundRole.ts' import { SPEECH_TOPICS } from '../../src/lib/speechFacets.ts' import { formatVoteEstimateEndpointsLabel, @@ -134,6 +143,14 @@ const withInlineSources = (text, sources) => { return `${text} ${inlineSourceTokens(sources.length)}` } +/** "+1.234" / "−208.310" — the 2º-turno deltas never lose the sign. */ +const signedInteger = (value) => + `${value > 0 ? '+' : value < 0 ? '−' : ''}${formatInteger(Math.abs(value))}` + +/** "+3,2 p.p." / "−4,0 p.p." — pt-BR decimal, explicit sign. */ +const signedPoints = (value) => + `${value > 0 ? '+' : value < 0 ? '−' : ''}${Math.abs(value).toFixed(1).replace('.', ',')} p.p.` + /** * Página 1 = resumo de uma olhada: a fonte do item entra compacta (pesquisa web * + data). O texto é o `summary` do researcher quando existe; sem ele, a @@ -471,6 +488,206 @@ const buildElectoralSection = ({ snapshot }) => { ].filter(Boolean) } +/** + * Local movement of the 2º turno (web): acts, palanques and positioning of + * local leaders in the Lula × Flávio race. A missing item is the explicit gap. + */ +const buildSecondRoundResearchBlock = (research) => { + const item = researchItemById(research, 'segundo_turno') + if (!item) { + return gapCallout( + [ + { + id: 'segundo_turno', + label: 'Movimento local do 2º turno', + reason: 'Não pesquisado.', + }, + ], + 'Lacuna desta seção', + ) + } + const sources = sourcesOf(item) + return { + kind: 'table', + title: '2º turno — movimento local e palanque (pesquisa)', + columns: [ + { key: 'detail', label: 'O que a fonte diz', width: 72 }, + { key: 'source', label: 'Fonte', width: 28 }, + ], + rows: [ + { + detail: withInlineSources(item.details ?? item.answer, sources), + source: formatDateBr(item.sourceDate), + sources, + }, + ], + note: 'Atos, palanques e posicionamentos locais na disputa Lula × Flávio — fato publicado com fonte datada.', + sources: sources.map((url) => ({ + kind: 'web', + label: 'Movimento local do 2º turno', + url, + date: item.sourceDate, + })), + } +} + +/** + * 2º turno section (Lula × Flávio): deterministic numbers from the committed + * artifact (official TSE 2026 president T1 per section, aggregated to the + * campaign unit) + the local web movement. The role copy directs the visit + * (mobilize/defend); it never promises vote transfer. + */ +const buildSecondRoundSection = ({ snapshot, research }) => { + const unit = getBahiaSecondRoundUnit(snapshot.municipality.slug) + if (!unit) { + return [ + gapCallout( + [ + { + id: 'segundo_turno', + label: 'Artefato do 2º turno', + reason: 'Unidade fora do artefato TSE 2026 — regenere com `pnpm build:second-round`.', + }, + ], + 'Lacunas desta seção', + ), + buildSecondRoundResearchBlock(research), + ].filter(Boolean) + } + + const potential = secondRoundPotentialOf(unit) + const shares = secondRoundLulaShares(unit) + const capture = secondRoundAdversaryCapturePct(unit) + const sollaRatio = secondRoundSollaShareOfLula(unit) + const sources = [ + sourceOfficial( + 'TSE — 1º turno 2026 (presidente, por seção) e 2022; deputado federal 2026', + null, + null, + ), + sourceTeqo( + 'base Teqo — artefato do 2º turno (pnpm build:second-round)', + BAHIA_SECOND_ROUND_GENERATED_AT, + ), + ] + + const rows = [ + { + label: 'Lula (PT)', + y22: formatInteger(unit.lula22), + y26: formatInteger(unit.lula26), + delta: signedInteger(unit.dLula), + }, + { + label: 'Adversário (Bolsonaro→Flávio)', + y22: formatInteger(unit.adversary22), + y26: formatInteger(unit.adversary26), + delta: signedInteger(unit.dAdversary), + }, + { + label: 'Solla — dep. federal 1313', + y22: formatInteger(unit.solla22), + y26: formatInteger(unit.solla26), + delta: signedInteger(unit.dSolla), + }, + { + label: 'Comparecimento', + y22: formatInteger(unit.comparecimento22), + y26: formatInteger(unit.comparecimento26), + delta: signedInteger(unit.comparecimento26 - unit.comparecimento22), + }, + { + label: 'Abstenção', + y22: formatInteger(unit.abstencao22), + y26: formatInteger(unit.abstencao26), + delta: signedInteger(unit.abstencao26 - unit.abstencao22), + }, + { + label: 'Brancos + nulos', + y22: formatInteger(unit.brancosNulos22), + y26: formatInteger(unit.brancosNulos26), + delta: signedInteger(unit.brancosNulos26 - unit.brancosNulos22), + }, + ] + + const calloutBody = [secondRoundRoleGuidance[unit.role]] + if (capture !== null) { + calloutBody.push( + `Captura do adversário: ${formatPercent(capture / 100)} da perda de Lula em votos (pode passar de 100% quando o comparecimento cresce).`, + ) + } + if (sollaRatio !== null) { + calloutBody.push( + `Solla 2026 = ${formatPercent(sollaRatio / 100)} dos votos de Lula no recorte — a base local disponível para organizar a mobilização.`, + ) + } + + const kpis = [ + { + label: 'Lula em 2026', + value: formatPercent(shares.share26 / 100), + hint: `dos válidos · Δ ${signedPoints(shares.deltaPp)} vs 2022`, + }, + { + label: 'Votos fora do 2º turno', + value: potential ? `X₂ = ${formatInteger(potential.x2)}` : '—', + hint: potential + ? `X₁ = ${formatInteger(potential.x1)} já no comparecimento; X₂ soma os ausentes` + : 'sem cenário para os números do recorte', + }, + { + label: 'Solla 2026', + value: formatInteger(unit.solla26), + hint: `Δ ${signedInteger(unit.dSolla)} vs 2022${ + sollaRatio !== null ? ` · ${formatPercent(sollaRatio / 100)} dos votos de Lula` : '' + }`, + }, + ] + + return [ + { + kind: 'callout', + tone: unit.role === 'defesa' ? 'risk' : 'decision', + title: `Papel no 2º turno: ${secondRoundRoleLabels[unit.role]}`, + body: calloutBody, + sources, + }, + { kind: 'kpis', items: kpis, sources: [sources[0]] }, + { + kind: 'table', + title: 'A conta 2022 → 1º turno 2026 (presidente e Solla 1313)', + columns: [ + { key: 'label', label: 'Indicador', width: 34 }, + { key: 'y22', label: '2022', numeric: true, width: 22 }, + { key: 'y26', label: '2026', numeric: true, width: 22 }, + { key: 'delta', label: 'Δ', numeric: true, width: 22 }, + ], + rows, + note: + unit.dLula < 0 + ? `Captura do adversário = ΔFlávio ÷ |ΔLula| = ${ + capture === null ? '—' : formatPercent(capture / 100) + }; pode passar de 100% porque a perda de Lula não é a única fonte do ganho (comparecimento e terceira via também mudam).` + : `Lula não perdeu votos no recorte (Δ ${signedInteger(unit.dLula)}).`, + sources, + }, + { + kind: 'prose', + text: 'X₁ = votos já dentro do comparecimento de 2026 que não foram de Lula nem de Flávio (nulos, brancos e terceira via); X₂ = X₁ + ausentes. São votos em jogo, não transferência garantida: o cenário de 2º turno é hipotético. Persuasão em eleição geral tem efeito médio próximo de zero — o papel de Solla é mobilizar, proteger e dar voz, com contato na última semana.', + sources, + }, + buildSecondRoundResearchBlock(research), + ].filter(Boolean) +} + +/** + * Page-1 one-liner of the 2º turno was intentionally left out: page 1 is a + * measured, fail-closed surface that already sits at the budget for the + * heaviest cities, and deterministic content cannot be shrunk by the text + * fallback. The 2º turno lives in its own section (right after the electoral + * account), with the full artifact numbers. + */ + const COMPETITOR_SERIES_YEARS = ['2014', '2018', '2022'] const buildCompetitorsTable = ({ title, rows, referenceYear, readAt }) => ({ @@ -1520,6 +1737,11 @@ export const buildCityReport = ({ title: 'Conta eleitoral completa (2014/2018/2022)', blocks: buildElectoralSection({ snapshot }), }, + { + id: 'segundo-turno', + title: '2º turno no município (Lula × Flávio)', + blocks: buildSecondRoundSection({ snapshot, research }), + }, { id: 'concorrentes', title: 'Concorrentes no município (federal e estadual)', diff --git a/scripts/lib/cityReportResearch.mjs b/scripts/lib/cityReportResearch.mjs index d41b3b60..347ed7ce 100644 --- a/scripts/lib/cityReportResearch.mjs +++ b/scripts/lib/cityReportResearch.mjs @@ -17,6 +17,10 @@ const RESEARCH_CHECKLIST = [ { id: 'relacao_campo', label: 'Relação com o campo (aliado, oposição, neutro)' }, { id: 'vereadores', label: 'Vereadores e dobradas' }, { id: 'disputa_local', label: 'Disputa local' }, + { + id: 'segundo_turno', + label: '2º turno (Lula × Flávio) — atos, palanques e posições locais', + }, { id: 'quem_investe', label: 'Quem mais investe na cidade (bancada e adversários)' }, { id: 'noticias', label: 'Notícias da cidade/região (janela ≤90 dias)' }, { id: 'imprensa_local', label: 'Imprensa e rádio local' }, diff --git a/src/lib/bahiaSecondRound.ts b/src/lib/bahiaSecondRound.ts new file mode 100644 index 00000000..9e9eee21 --- /dev/null +++ b/src/lib/bahiaSecondRound.ts @@ -0,0 +1,111 @@ +import artifactJson from '@/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-second-round-2026.json' +import type { SecondRoundRole } from '@/lib/secondRoundRole' +import { computeSectionPotential, type SectionPotential } from '@/lib/sectionPotential' + +/** + * Committed Bahia 2º-turno baseline (Lula × Flávio): official TSE 2026 president + * T1 per section (aggregated to the campaign's municipality geography — Salvador + * split by ZE), joined with the 2022 presidential slice and Solla's 2026 federal + * result. Generated by `pnpm build:second-round` from + * `public/dados/potencial-secao-2026/BA.json` + the internal 2º-turno analysis, + * validated against `bahia-federal-baseline.json` and the audited BA totals — + * never computed at build/request time. + * + * Read-only and pure: the loader only projects the artifact and runs the SAME + * `computeSectionPotential` the public `/potencial` page uses, so the report's + * X₁/X₂ can never drift from the site's scenario. + */ + +export type BahiaSecondRoundUnit = { + /** Display name ("Jaguaquara" / "Salvador — ZE 19"). */ + name: string + kind: 'municipio' | 'zona' + tseCityCode: string + ibgeCode: string + /** Zone number for Salvador ZE units; null for whole municipalities. */ + zone: number | null + /** Deterministic campaign role (`secondRoundRole.ts`). */ + role: SecondRoundRole + /** Lula's votes in the 2022 presidential race. */ + lula22: number + /** Lula's votes in the 1º turno 2026. */ + lula26: number + /** `lula26 − lula22` (negative = lost votes). */ + dLula: number + /** Bolsonaro 2022 / Flávio 2026 (the same adversary seat across cycles). */ + adversary22: number + adversary26: number + dAdversary: number + /** Solla (federal deputy 1313): 2022 and 2026 nominal votes. */ + solla22: number + solla26: number + dSolla: number + aptos22: number + aptos26: number + comparecimento22: number + comparecimento26: number + abstencao22: number + abstencao26: number + /** Blank + null votes (comparecimento − válidos). */ + brancosNulos22: number + brancosNulos26: number + validos22: number + validos26: number +} + +type BahiaSecondRoundArtifact = { + version: number + generatedAt: string + scope: string + provenance: string + sources: Record + pins: Record + totals: Record + units: Record +} + +const artifact = artifactJson as BahiaSecondRoundArtifact + +export const BAHIA_SECOND_ROUND_GENERATED_AT = artifact.generatedAt + +/** One catalog unit (slug from `municipalityCatalog`) or `null` when unknown. */ +export const getBahiaSecondRoundUnit = (slug: string): BahiaSecondRoundUnit | null => + artifact.units[slug] ?? null + +export const bahiaSecondRoundTotals = artifact.totals + +/** + * The 2º-turno scenario for one unit — X₁ (votes already available inside the + * 1º-turno comparecimento: nulls + blanks + all third-party votes) and X₂ + * (X₁ + absentees), with the hypothetical 2nd-round shares. Reuses the public + * `/potencial` formula; `null` when the raw counts are inconsistent. + */ +export const secondRoundPotentialOf = (unit: BahiaSecondRoundUnit): SectionPotential | null => { + const result = computeSectionPotential({ + aptos: unit.aptos26, + comparecimento: unit.comparecimento26, + lula: unit.lula26, + flavio: unit.adversary26, + validos: unit.validos26, + }) + return result.available ? result.potential : null +} + +/** Lula's share of the 1º-turno valid votes (2022 / 2026), in percent. */ +export const secondRoundLulaShares = ( + unit: BahiaSecondRoundUnit, +): { share22: number; share26: number; deltaPp: number } => { + const share22 = unit.validos22 > 0 ? (unit.lula22 / unit.validos22) * 100 : 0 + const share26 = unit.validos26 > 0 ? (unit.lula26 / unit.validos26) * 100 : 0 + return { share22, share26, deltaPp: share26 - share22 } +} + +/** Solla's 2026 votes as a share of Lula's 2026 votes (the local brand ratio). */ +export const secondRoundSollaShareOfLula = (unit: BahiaSecondRoundUnit): number | null => + unit.lula26 > 0 ? (unit.solla26 / unit.lula26) * 100 : null + +/** Δ adversary ÷ |Δ Lula| — how much of Lula's loss the adversary captured. */ +export const secondRoundAdversaryCapturePct = (unit: BahiaSecondRoundUnit): number | null => { + if (unit.dLula >= 0) return null + return (unit.dAdversary / Math.abs(unit.dLula)) * 100 +} diff --git a/src/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-second-round-2026.json b/src/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-second-round-2026.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..22bdcbbf --- /dev/null +++ b/src/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-second-round-2026.json @@ -0,0 +1,11787 @@ +{ + "version": 1, + "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T04:17:16.763Z", + "scope": "BA — 2º turno Lula × Flávio", + "provenance": "TSE 2026 presidente 1º turno por seção (public/dados/potencial-secao-2026/BA.json, oficial) + análise 2º turno da campanha (analise-eleicoes-2026/nota-solla-2turno) para Solla 2026 e a fatia de 2022; 2022 validado contra bahia-federal-baseline.json.", + "sources": { + "shard": "public/dados/potencial-secao-2026/BA.json", + "baseline": "src/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-federal-baseline.json", + "analysisDir": "analise-eleicoes-2026/bahia (solla_municipios, ba_ausentes_bn, salvador_ze_v3, solla_ze_salvador)" + }, + "pins": { + "aptos26": 11312752, + "comparecimento26": 9053601, + "lula26": 5664771, + "adversary26": 2442585, + "validos26": 8560542, + "lula22": 5873081, + "adversary22": 2047599, + "solla22": 128968, + "solla26": 152049 + }, + "totals": { + "aptos22": 11283405, + "aptos26": 11312752, + "comparecimento22": 8874841, + "comparecimento26": 9053601, + "abstencao22": 2408564, + "abstencao26": 2259151, + "brancosNulos22": 451833, + "brancosNulos26": 493059, + "validos22": 8423008, + "validos26": 8560542, + "lula22": 5873081, + "lula26": 5664771, + "adversary22": 2047599, + "adversary26": 2442585, + "solla22": 128968, + "solla26": 152049 + }, + "units": { + "abaira": { + "name": "Abaíra", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "33014", + "ibgeCode": "2900108", + "zone": null, + "role": "defesa", + "lula22": 3274, + "lula26": 3037, + "dLula": -237, + "adversary22": 1433, + "adversary26": 1651, + "dAdversary": 218, + "solla22": 30, + "solla26": 25, + "dSolla": -5, + "aptos22": 7181, + "aptos26": 6761, + "comparecimento22": 5460, + "comparecimento26": 5380, + "abstencao22": 1721, + "abstencao26": 1381, + "brancosNulos22": 403, + "brancosNulos26": 438, + "validos22": 5057, + "validos26": 4942 + }, + "abare": { + "name": "Abaré", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "33030", + "ibgeCode": "2900207", + "zone": null, + "role": "mobilizacao", + "lula22": 8798, + "lula26": 8618, + "dLula": -180, + "adversary22": 2331, + "adversary26": 2961, + "dAdversary": 630, + "solla22": 26, + "solla26": 31, + "dSolla": 5, + "aptos22": 14591, + "aptos26": 14734, + "comparecimento22": 11965, + "comparecimento26": 12289, + "abstencao22": 2626, + "abstencao26": 2445, + "brancosNulos22": 439, + "brancosNulos26": 430, + "validos22": 11526, + "validos26": 11859 + }, + "acajutiba": { + "name": "Acajutiba", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "33057", + "ibgeCode": "2900306", + "zone": null, + "role": "mobilizacao", + "lula22": 6794, + "lula26": 6512, + "dLula": -282, + "adversary22": 1548, + "adversary26": 2121, + "dAdversary": 573, + "solla22": 24, + "solla26": 34, + "dSolla": 10, + "aptos22": 12237, + "aptos26": 12019, + "comparecimento22": 9222, + "comparecimento26": 9617, + "abstencao22": 3015, + "abstencao26": 2402, + "brancosNulos22": 431, + "brancosNulos26": 577, + "validos22": 8791, + "validos26": 9040 + }, + "adustina": { + "name": "Adustina", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "33065", + "ibgeCode": "2900355", + "zone": null, + "role": "defesa", + "lula22": 7373, + "lula26": 7267, + "dLula": -106, + "adversary22": 1332, + "adversary26": 1979, + "dAdversary": 647, + "solla22": 22, + "solla26": 9, + "dSolla": -13, + "aptos22": 11850, + "aptos26": 12402, + "comparecimento22": 9681, + "comparecimento26": 10239, + "abstencao22": 2169, + "abstencao26": 2163, + "brancosNulos22": 474, + "brancosNulos26": 575, + "validos22": 9207, + "validos26": 9664 + }, + "agua-fria": { + "name": "Água Fria", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "33073", + "ibgeCode": "2900405", + "zone": null, + "role": "expansao", + "lula22": 7125, + "lula26": 7386, + "dLula": 261, + "adversary22": 1461, + "adversary26": 1964, + "dAdversary": 503, + "solla22": 76, + "solla26": 39, + "dSolla": -37, + "aptos22": 13061, + "aptos26": 13416, + "comparecimento22": 9756, + "comparecimento26": 10582, + "abstencao22": 3305, + "abstencao26": 2834, + "brancosNulos22": 695, + "brancosNulos26": 776, + "validos22": 9061, + "validos26": 9806 + }, + "aiquara": { + "name": "Aiquara", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "33111", + "ibgeCode": "2900603", + "zone": null, + "role": "expansao", + "lula22": 2193, + "lula26": 2315, + "dLula": 122, + "adversary22": 634, + "adversary26": 753, + "dAdversary": 119, + "solla22": 12, + "solla26": 12, + "dSolla": 0, + "aptos22": 4184, + "aptos26": 4318, + "comparecimento22": 3126, + "comparecimento26": 3286, + "abstencao22": 1058, + "abstencao26": 1032, + "brancosNulos22": 157, + "brancosNulos26": 131, + "validos22": 2969, + "validos26": 3155 + }, + "alagoinhas": { + "name": "Alagoinhas", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "33138", + "ibgeCode": "2900702", + "zone": null, + "role": "defesa", + "lula22": 56247, + "lula26": 55711, + "dLula": -536, + "adversary22": 22020, + "adversary26": 23628, + "dAdversary": 1608, + "solla22": 757, + "solla26": 397, + "dSolla": -360, + "aptos22": 112002, + "aptos26": 114417, + "comparecimento22": 89740, + "comparecimento26": 90539, + "abstencao22": 22262, + "abstencao26": 23878, + "brancosNulos22": 5099, + "brancosNulos26": 5898, + "validos22": 84641, + "validos26": 84641 + }, + "alcobaca": { + "name": "Alcobaça", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "33154", + "ibgeCode": "2900801", + "zone": null, + "role": "expansao", + "lula22": 8984, + "lula26": 9507, + "dLula": 523, + "adversary22": 3430, + "adversary26": 4216, + "dAdversary": 786, + "solla22": 238, + "solla26": 296, + "dSolla": 58, + "aptos22": 18832, + "aptos26": 19171, + "comparecimento22": 13528, + "comparecimento26": 14850, + "abstencao22": 5304, + "abstencao26": 4321, + "brancosNulos22": 549, + "brancosNulos26": 636, + "validos22": 12979, + "validos26": 14214 + }, + "almadina": { + "name": "Almadina", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "33170", + "ibgeCode": "2900900", + "zone": null, + "role": "expansao", + "lula22": 2736, + "lula26": 2943, + "dLula": 207, + "adversary22": 615, + "adversary26": 719, + "dAdversary": 104, + "solla22": 5, + "solla26": 13, + "dSolla": 8, + "aptos22": 5157, + "aptos26": 4923, + "comparecimento22": 3649, + "comparecimento26": 3844, + "abstencao22": 1508, + "abstencao26": 1079, + "brancosNulos22": 164, + "brancosNulos26": 111, + "validos22": 3485, + "validos26": 3733 + }, + "amargosa": { + "name": "Amargosa", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "33197", + "ibgeCode": "2901007", + "zone": null, + "role": "prioridade", + "lula22": 13958, + "lula26": 12926, + "dLula": -1032, + "adversary22": 6033, + "adversary26": 7542, + "dAdversary": 1509, + "solla22": 7602, + "solla26": 7730, + "dSolla": 128, + "aptos22": 28896, + "aptos26": 28384, + "comparecimento22": 22059, + "comparecimento26": 22830, + "abstencao22": 6837, + "abstencao26": 5554, + "brancosNulos22": 1136, + "brancosNulos26": 1475, + "validos22": 20923, + "validos26": 21355 + }, + "amelia-rodrigues": { + "name": "Amélia Rodrigues", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "33219", + "ibgeCode": "2901106", + "zone": null, + "role": "prioridade", + "lula22": 11548, + "lula26": 11248, + "dLula": -300, + "adversary22": 2458, + "adversary26": 2883, + "dAdversary": 425, + "solla22": 83, + "solla26": 2137, + "dSolla": 2054, + "aptos22": 19792, + "aptos26": 19625, + "comparecimento22": 15717, + "comparecimento26": 15825, + "abstencao22": 4075, + "abstencao26": 3800, + "brancosNulos22": 813, + "brancosNulos26": 925, + "validos22": 14904, + "validos26": 14900 + }, + "america-dourada": { + "name": "América Dourada", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "30716", + "ibgeCode": "2901155", + "zone": null, + "role": "mobilizacao", + "lula22": 8144, + "lula26": 7668, + "dLula": -476, + "adversary22": 1362, + "adversary26": 1902, + "dAdversary": 540, + "solla22": 11, + "solla26": 25, + "dSolla": 14, + "aptos22": 13481, + "aptos26": 12503, + "comparecimento22": 10145, + "comparecimento26": 10243, + "abstencao22": 3336, + "abstencao26": 2260, + "brancosNulos22": 290, + "brancosNulos26": 351, + "validos22": 9855, + "validos26": 9892 + }, + "anage": { + "name": "Anagé", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "33235", + "ibgeCode": "2901205", + "zone": null, + "role": "expansao", + "lula22": 10563, + "lula26": 10800, + "dLula": 237, + "adversary22": 2610, + "adversary26": 3004, + "dAdversary": 394, + "solla22": 47, + "solla26": 62, + "dSolla": 15, + "aptos22": 19720, + "aptos26": 18704, + "comparecimento22": 14880, + "comparecimento26": 15035, + "abstencao22": 4840, + "abstencao26": 3669, + "brancosNulos22": 824, + "brancosNulos26": 662, + "validos22": 14056, + "validos26": 14373 + }, + "andarai": { + "name": "Andaraí", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "33251", + "ibgeCode": "2901304", + "zone": null, + "role": "defesa", + "lula22": 6190, + "lula26": 5844, + "dLula": -346, + "adversary22": 894, + "adversary26": 1223, + "dAdversary": 329, + "solla22": 404, + "solla26": 227, + "dSolla": -177, + "aptos22": 10764, + "aptos26": 9794, + "comparecimento22": 7772, + "comparecimento26": 7682, + "abstencao22": 2992, + "abstencao26": 2112, + "brancosNulos22": 476, + "brancosNulos26": 394, + "validos22": 7296, + "validos26": 7288 + }, + "andorinha": { + "name": "Andorinha", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "33260", + "ibgeCode": "2901353", + "zone": null, + "role": "expansao", + "lula22": 8676, + "lula26": 9252, + "dLula": 576, + "adversary22": 825, + "adversary26": 1289, + "dAdversary": 464, + "solla22": 797, + "solla26": 576, + "dSolla": -221, + "aptos22": 12446, + "aptos26": 13508, + "comparecimento22": 10166, + "comparecimento26": 11291, + "abstencao22": 2280, + "abstencao26": 2217, + "brancosNulos22": 405, + "brancosNulos26": 402, + "validos22": 9761, + "validos26": 10889 + }, + "angical": { + "name": "Angical", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "33278", + "ibgeCode": "2901403", + "zone": null, + "role": "mobilizacao", + "lula22": 7497, + "lula26": 7073, + "dLula": -424, + "adversary22": 1925, + "adversary26": 2640, + "dAdversary": 715, + "solla22": 13, + "solla26": 14, + "dSolla": 1, + "aptos22": 12884, + "aptos26": 12831, + "comparecimento22": 10143, + "comparecimento26": 10421, + "abstencao22": 2741, + "abstencao26": 2410, + "brancosNulos22": 361, + "brancosNulos26": 307, + "validos22": 9782, + "validos26": 10114 + }, + "anguera": { + "name": "Anguera", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "33294", + "ibgeCode": "2901502", + "zone": null, + "role": "expansao", + "lula22": 5840, + "lula26": 6206, + "dLula": 366, + "adversary22": 1024, + "adversary26": 1553, + "dAdversary": 529, + "solla22": 44, + "solla26": 18, + "dSolla": -26, + "aptos22": 9349, + "aptos26": 10304, + "comparecimento22": 7449, + "comparecimento26": 8457, + "abstencao22": 1900, + "abstencao26": 1847, + "brancosNulos22": 344, + "brancosNulos26": 402, + "validos22": 7105, + "validos26": 8055 + }, + "antas": { + "name": "Antas", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "33316", + "ibgeCode": "2901601", + "zone": null, + "role": "defesa", + "lula22": 5699, + "lula26": 5290, + "dLula": -409, + "adversary22": 1960, + "adversary26": 2611, + "dAdversary": 651, + "solla22": 46, + "solla26": 36, + "dSolla": -10, + "aptos22": 10985, + "aptos26": 10594, + "comparecimento22": 8465, + "comparecimento26": 8590, + "abstencao22": 2520, + "abstencao26": 2004, + "brancosNulos22": 340, + "brancosNulos26": 371, + "validos22": 8125, + "validos26": 8219 + }, + "antonio-cardoso": { + "name": "Antônio Cardoso", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "33332", + "ibgeCode": "2901700", + "zone": null, + "role": "defesa", + "lula22": 8080, + "lula26": 7868, + "dLula": -212, + "adversary22": 787, + "adversary26": 1415, + "dAdversary": 628, + "solla22": 56, + "solla26": 43, + "dSolla": -13, + "aptos22": 11270, + "aptos26": 12130, + "comparecimento22": 9497, + "comparecimento26": 10025, + "abstencao22": 1773, + "abstencao26": 2105, + "brancosNulos22": 342, + "brancosNulos26": 444, + "validos22": 9155, + "validos26": 9581 + }, + "antonio-goncalves": { + "name": "Antônio Gonçalves", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "33359", + "ibgeCode": "2901809", + "zone": null, + "role": "expansao", + "lula22": 4885, + "lula26": 5000, + "dLula": 115, + "adversary22": 1355, + "adversary26": 1568, + "dAdversary": 213, + "solla22": 17, + "solla26": 33, + "dSolla": 16, + "aptos22": 8815, + "aptos26": 8672, + "comparecimento22": 6769, + "comparecimento26": 7070, + "abstencao22": 2046, + "abstencao26": 1602, + "brancosNulos22": 278, + "brancosNulos26": 275, + "validos22": 6491, + "validos26": 6795 + }, + "apora": { + "name": "Aporá", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "33375", + "ibgeCode": "2901908", + "zone": null, + "role": "mobilizacao", + "lula22": 7625, + "lula26": 7517, + "dLula": -108, + "adversary22": 1710, + "adversary26": 2718, + "dAdversary": 1008, + "solla22": 30, + "solla26": 96, + "dSolla": 66, + "aptos22": 14294, + "aptos26": 14198, + "comparecimento22": 10489, + "comparecimento26": 11384, + "abstencao22": 3805, + "abstencao26": 2814, + "brancosNulos22": 548, + "brancosNulos26": 721, + "validos22": 9941, + "validos26": 10663 + }, + "apuarema": { + "name": "Apuarema", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "33405", + "ibgeCode": "2901957", + "zone": null, + "role": "mobilizacao", + "lula22": 3122, + "lula26": 3060, + "dLula": -62, + "adversary22": 1125, + "adversary26": 1452, + "dAdversary": 327, + "solla22": 10, + "solla26": 21, + "dSolla": 11, + "aptos22": 5967, + "aptos26": 6358, + "comparecimento22": 4711, + "comparecimento26": 4985, + "abstencao22": 1256, + "abstencao26": 1373, + "brancosNulos22": 271, + "brancosNulos26": 259, + "validos22": 4440, + "validos26": 4726 + }, + "aracas": { + "name": "Araças", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "33383", + "ibgeCode": "2902054", + "zone": null, + "role": "expansao", + "lula22": 6089, + "lula26": 6357, + "dLula": 268, + "adversary22": 1217, + "adversary26": 1239, + "dAdversary": 22, + "solla22": 35, + "solla26": 34, + "dSolla": -1, + "aptos22": 10142, + "aptos26": 10800, + "comparecimento22": 8046, + "comparecimento26": 8266, + "abstencao22": 2096, + "abstencao26": 2534, + "brancosNulos22": 394, + "brancosNulos26": 411, + "validos22": 7652, + "validos26": 7855 + }, + "aracatu": { + "name": "Aracatu", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "33391", + "ibgeCode": "2902005", + "zone": null, + "role": "defesa", + "lula22": 7610, + "lula26": 7400, + "dLula": -210, + "adversary22": 1769, + "adversary26": 2292, + "dAdversary": 523, + "solla22": 24, + "solla26": 17, + "dSolla": -7, + "aptos22": 11976, + "aptos26": 12568, + "comparecimento22": 10246, + "comparecimento26": 10499, + "abstencao22": 1730, + "abstencao26": 2069, + "brancosNulos22": 508, + "brancosNulos26": 436, + "validos22": 9738, + "validos26": 10063 + }, + "araci": { + "name": "Araci", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "33413", + "ibgeCode": "2902104", + "zone": null, + "role": "expansao", + "lula22": 23385, + "lula26": 24425, + "dLula": 1040, + "adversary22": 3682, + "adversary26": 4872, + "dAdversary": 1190, + "solla22": 43, + "solla26": 44, + "dSolla": 1, + "aptos22": 42185, + "aptos26": 40272, + "comparecimento22": 29780, + "comparecimento26": 31786, + "abstencao22": 12405, + "abstencao26": 8486, + "brancosNulos22": 1309, + "brancosNulos26": 1371, + "validos22": 28471, + "validos26": 30415 + }, + "aramari": { + 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11651, + "comparecimento22": 8918, + "comparecimento26": 9235, + "abstencao22": 2053, + "abstencao26": 2416, + "brancosNulos22": 440, + "brancosNulos26": 356, + "validos22": 8478, + "validos26": 8879 + }, + "una": { + "name": "Una", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "39497", + "ibgeCode": "2932507", + "zone": null, + "role": "expansao", + "lula22": 6485, + "lula26": 6538, + "dLula": 53, + "adversary22": 3911, + "adversary26": 4753, + "dAdversary": 842, + "solla22": 46, + "solla26": 487, + "dSolla": 441, + "aptos22": 16003, + "aptos26": 16864, + "comparecimento22": 11870, + "comparecimento26": 12601, + "abstencao22": 4133, + "abstencao26": 4263, + "brancosNulos22": 645, + "brancosNulos26": 663, + "validos22": 11225, + "validos26": 11938 + }, + "urandi": { + "name": "Urandi", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "39519", + "ibgeCode": "2932606", + "zone": null, + "role": "expansao", + "lula22": 7707, + "lula26": 8062, + "dLula": 355, + "adversary22": 1749, + "adversary26": 2357, + "dAdversary": 608, + "solla22": 14, + "solla26": 13, + "dSolla": -1, + "aptos22": 13432, + "aptos26": 13766, + "comparecimento22": 10226, + "comparecimento26": 11131, + "abstencao22": 3206, + "abstencao26": 2635, + "brancosNulos22": 484, + "brancosNulos26": 358, + "validos22": 9742, + "validos26": 10773 + }, + "urucuca": { + "name": "Uruçuca", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "39535", + "ibgeCode": "2932705", + "zone": null, + "role": "expansao", + "lula22": 7916, + "lula26": 8109, + "dLula": 193, + "adversary22": 4617, + "adversary26": 4599, + "dAdversary": -18, + "solla22": 96, + "solla26": 60, + "dSolla": -36, + "aptos22": 18709, + "aptos26": 18222, + "comparecimento22": 13818, + "comparecimento26": 13919, + "abstencao22": 4891, + "abstencao26": 4303, + "brancosNulos22": 643, + "brancosNulos26": 709, + "validos22": 13175, + "validos26": 13210 + }, + "utinga": { + "name": "Utinga", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "39551", + "ibgeCode": "2932804", + "zone": null, + "role": "defesa", + "lula22": 7225, + "lula26": 6959, + "dLula": -266, + "adversary22": 1705, + "adversary26": 2420, + "dAdversary": 715, + "solla22": 64, + "solla26": 16, + "dSolla": -48, + "aptos22": 13324, + "aptos26": 13057, + "comparecimento22": 9777, + "comparecimento26": 10190, + "abstencao22": 3547, + "abstencao26": 2867, + "brancosNulos22": 436, + "brancosNulos26": 444, + "validos22": 9341, + "validos26": 9746 + }, + "valenca": { + "name": "Valença", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "39578", + "ibgeCode": "2932903", + "zone": null, + "role": "defesa", + "lula22": 31207, + "lula26": 30832, + "dLula": -375, + "adversary22": 13552, + "adversary26": 15367, + "dAdversary": 1815, + "solla22": 430, + "solla26": 422, + "dSolla": -8, + "aptos22": 64400, + "aptos26": 66657, + "comparecimento22": 51388, + "comparecimento26": 52894, + "abstencao22": 13012, + "abstencao26": 13763, + "brancosNulos22": 3662, + "brancosNulos26": 3770, + "validos22": 47726, + "validos26": 49124 + }, + "valente": { + "name": "Valente", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "39594", + "ibgeCode": "2933000", + "zone": null, + "role": "mobilizacao", + "lula22": 9990, + "lula26": 9915, + "dLula": -75, + "adversary22": 4440, + "adversary26": 5598, + "dAdversary": 1158, + "solla22": 51, + "solla26": 75, + "dSolla": 24, + "aptos22": 19999, + "aptos26": 20175, + "comparecimento22": 16434, + "comparecimento26": 17431, + "abstencao22": 3565, + "abstencao26": 2744, + "brancosNulos22": 936, + "brancosNulos26": 942, + "validos22": 15498, + "validos26": 16489 + }, + "varzea-da-roca": { + "name": "Várzea da Roça", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "39977", + "ibgeCode": "2933059", + "zone": null, + "role": "defesa", + "lula22": 5830, + "lula26": 5793, + "dLula": -37, + "adversary22": 1477, + "adversary26": 1967, + "dAdversary": 490, + "solla22": 47, + "solla26": 32, + "dSolla": -15, + "aptos22": 11488, + "aptos26": 10928, + "comparecimento22": 8396, + "comparecimento26": 8692, + "abstencao22": 3092, + "abstencao26": 2236, + "brancosNulos22": 694, + "brancosNulos26": 600, + "validos22": 7702, + "validos26": 8092 + }, + "varzea-do-poco": { + "name": "Várzea do Poço", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "39616", + "ibgeCode": "2933109", + "zone": null, + "role": "expansao", + "lula22": 3717, + "lula26": 3937, + "dLula": 220, + "adversary22": 1152, + "adversary26": 1426, + "dAdversary": 274, + "solla22": 11, + "solla26": 17, + "dSolla": 6, + "aptos22": 7062, + "aptos26": 7284, + "comparecimento22": 5402, + "comparecimento26": 5905, + "abstencao22": 1660, + "abstencao26": 1379, + "brancosNulos22": 247, + "brancosNulos26": 300, + "validos22": 5155, + "validos26": 5605 + }, + "varzea-nova": { + "name": "Várzea Nova", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "39950", + "ibgeCode": "2933158", + "zone": null, + "role": "expansao", + "lula22": 5571, + "lula26": 5666, + "dLula": 95, + "adversary22": 1613, + "adversary26": 2228, + "dAdversary": 615, + "solla22": 22, + "solla26": 22, + "dSolla": 0, + "aptos22": 10791, + "aptos26": 10874, + "comparecimento22": 8070, + "comparecimento26": 8855, + "abstencao22": 2721, + "abstencao26": 2019, + "brancosNulos22": 453, + "brancosNulos26": 539, + "validos22": 7617, + "validos26": 8316 + }, + "varzedo": { + "name": "Varzedo", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "39624", + "ibgeCode": "2933174", + "zone": null, + "role": "mobilizacao", + "lula22": 5045, + "lula26": 4957, + "dLula": -88, + "adversary22": 1554, + "adversary26": 2167, + "dAdversary": 613, + "solla22": 32, + "solla26": 56, + "dSolla": 24, + "aptos22": 8718, + "aptos26": 9468, + "comparecimento22": 7219, + "comparecimento26": 7868, + "abstencao22": 1499, + "abstencao26": 1600, + "brancosNulos22": 267, + "brancosNulos26": 372, + "validos22": 6952, + "validos26": 7496 + }, + "vera-cruz": { + "name": "Vera Cruz", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "39632", + "ibgeCode": "2933208", + "zone": null, + "role": "expansao", + "lula22": 19474, + "lula26": 20718, + "dLula": 1244, + "adversary22": 4946, + "adversary26": 5950, + "dAdversary": 1004, + "solla22": 1106, + "solla26": 1110, + "dSolla": 4, + "aptos22": 32993, + "aptos26": 36715, + "comparecimento22": 26973, + "comparecimento26": 29228, + "abstencao22": 6020, + "abstencao26": 7487, + "brancosNulos22": 1209, + "brancosNulos26": 1342, + "validos22": 25764, + "validos26": 27886 + }, + "vereda": { + "name": "Vereda", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "39640", + "ibgeCode": "2933257", + "zone": null, + "role": "mobilizacao", + "lula22": 3198, + "lula26": 3074, + "dLula": -124, + "adversary22": 1353, + "adversary26": 1637, + "dAdversary": 284, + "solla22": 39, + "solla26": 52, + "dSolla": 13, + "aptos22": 6795, + "aptos26": 6714, + "comparecimento22": 4987, + "comparecimento26": 5103, + "abstencao22": 1808, + "abstencao26": 1611, + "brancosNulos22": 211, + "brancosNulos26": 193, + "validos22": 4776, + "validos26": 4910 + }, + "vitoria-da-conquista": { + "name": "Vitória da Conquista", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "39659", + "ibgeCode": "2933307", + "zone": null, + "role": "prioridade", + "lula22": 111892, + "lula26": 108011, + "dLula": -3881, + "adversary22": 73828, + "adversary26": 82936, + "dAdversary": 9108, + "solla22": 5005, + "solla26": 5467, + "dSolla": 462, + "aptos22": 252199, + "aptos26": 265595, + "comparecimento22": 211850, + "comparecimento26": 216286, + "abstencao22": 40349, + "abstencao26": 49309, + "brancosNulos22": 9880, + "brancosNulos26": 11899, + "validos22": 201970, + "validos26": 204387 + }, + "wagner": { + "name": "Wagner", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "39675", + "ibgeCode": "2933406", + "zone": null, + "role": "defesa", + "lula22": 3884, + "lula26": 3730, + "dLula": -154, + "adversary22": 969, + "adversary26": 1268, + "dAdversary": 299, + "solla22": 36, + "solla26": 22, + "dSolla": -14, + "aptos22": 7340, + "aptos26": 6804, + "comparecimento22": 5318, + "comparecimento26": 5413, + "abstencao22": 2022, + "abstencao26": 1391, + "brancosNulos22": 256, + "brancosNulos26": 253, + "validos22": 5062, + "validos26": 5160 + }, + "wanderley": { + "name": "Wanderley", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "39993", + "ibgeCode": "2933455", + "zone": null, + "role": "defesa", + "lula22": 5814, + "lula26": 5088, + "dLula": -726, + "adversary22": 2201, + "adversary26": 2911, + "dAdversary": 710, + "solla22": 86, + "solla26": 11, + "dSolla": -75, + "aptos22": 10906, + "aptos26": 10702, + "comparecimento22": 8461, + "comparecimento26": 8494, + "abstencao22": 2445, + "abstencao26": 2208, + "brancosNulos22": 229, + "brancosNulos26": 254, + "validos22": 8232, + "validos26": 8240 + }, + "wenceslau-guimaraes": { + "name": "Wenceslau Guimarães", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "39691", + "ibgeCode": "2933505", + "zone": null, + "role": "defesa", + "lula22": 8412, + "lula26": 7981, + "dLula": -431, + "adversary22": 2981, + "adversary26": 3965, + "dAdversary": 984, + "solla22": 131, + "solla26": 73, + "dSolla": -58, + "aptos22": 16867, + "aptos26": 16675, + "comparecimento22": 12656, + "comparecimento26": 13076, + "abstencao22": 4211, + "abstencao26": 3599, + "brancosNulos22": 556, + "brancosNulos26": 658, + "validos22": 12100, + "validos26": 12418 + }, + "xique-xique": { + "name": "Xique-Xique", + "kind": "municipio", + "tseCityCode": "39713", + "ibgeCode": "2933604", + "zone": null, + "role": "defesa", + "lula22": 19828, + "lula26": 18111, + "dLula": -1717, + "adversary22": 4677, + "adversary26": 6878, + "dAdversary": 2201, + "solla22": 170, + "solla26": 64, + "dSolla": -106, + "aptos22": 36744, + "aptos26": 35384, + "comparecimento22": 26975, + "comparecimento26": 27416, + "abstencao22": 9769, + "abstencao26": 7968, + "brancosNulos22": 1234, + "brancosNulos26": 1376, + "validos22": 25741, + "validos26": 26040 + } + } +} diff --git a/src/lib/secondRoundRole.ts b/src/lib/secondRoundRole.ts new file mode 100644 index 00000000..ef92353c --- /dev/null +++ b/src/lib/secondRoundRole.ts @@ -0,0 +1,60 @@ +/** + * The deterministic role of one 2º-turno unit (município or Salvador ZE) in the + * Lula × Flávio campaign — the shared rule between the artifact builder + * (`pnpm build:second-round`) and the city report / briefing family. Pure: no + * data access, so the builder and the renderers can never disagree. + * + * The classification comes from the Bahia 1º-turn analysis (2022→2026): + * where Lula lost votes AND the local PT brand (Solla 1313) grew, mobilizing is + * safe; where both fell, the task is defense/turnout. Persuasão em eleição + * geral tem efeito médio ~0 — the role copy points the visit, it does not + * promise vote transfer. + */ + +export type SecondRoundRole = 'prioridade' | 'mobilizacao' | 'defesa' | 'expansao' + +export type SecondRoundSwingInput = { + /** Δ Lula (2026 − 2022), in votes; negative = lost votes. */ + dLula: number + /** Δ Solla (2026 − 2022), in votes. */ + dSolla: number + /** Solla's 2026 votes — sizes the local base (priority threshold ≥200). */ + solla26: number +} + +/** + * `prioridade` — Lula fell, Solla grew with a relevant base (≥200 votes): the + * operational heart (joint Lula–Solla agenda, person-to-person contact). + * `mobilizacao` — same swing, smaller base: leaders + geolocated digital. + * `defesa` — both fell: turnout/defense, no showcase. + * `expansao` — Lula did not lose here: keep presence and mobilize. + */ +export const classifySecondRoundRole = ({ + dLula, + dSolla, + solla26, +}: SecondRoundSwingInput): SecondRoundRole => { + if (dLula < 0) { + if (dSolla > 0) return solla26 >= 200 ? 'prioridade' : 'mobilizacao' + return 'defesa' + } + return 'expansao' +} + +export const secondRoundRoleLabels: Record = { + prioridade: 'Mobilização segura — prioridade', + mobilizacao: 'Mobilização segura', + defesa: 'Defesa e comparecimento', + expansao: 'Presença — Lula não perdeu aqui', +} + +export const secondRoundRoleGuidance: Record = { + prioridade: + 'Lula perdeu votos aqui e a marca local (Solla) cresceu com base relevante (≥200 votos): prioridade de mobilização — agenda conjunta Lula–Solla, contato pessoal e de vizinhança; o adversário ainda captura parte da perda.', + mobilizacao: + 'Lula perdeu votos e Solla cresceu: mobilização segura com base menor — lideranças locais, digital geolocalizado e contato dirigido.', + defesa: + 'Lula e Solla caíram juntos: base em erosão — a tarefa primária é comparecimento e defesa do voto já conquistado; Solla fala para a própria base, sem vitrine.', + expansao: + 'Lula não perdeu votos neste recorte (ou ganhou): manter presença e mobilização; persuasão em eleição geral tem efeito médio próximo de zero.', +} diff --git a/tests/unit/bahiaSecondRound.unit.spec.ts b/tests/unit/bahiaSecondRound.unit.spec.ts new file mode 100644 index 00000000..3548f367 --- /dev/null +++ b/tests/unit/bahiaSecondRound.unit.spec.ts @@ -0,0 +1,93 @@ +import { statSync } from 'node:fs' +import { join } from 'node:path' + +import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest' + +import { + bahiaSecondRoundTotals, + getBahiaSecondRoundUnit, + secondRoundAdversaryCapturePct, + secondRoundLulaShares, + secondRoundPotentialOf, + secondRoundSollaShareOfLula, +} from '@/lib/bahiaSecondRound' +import { municipalityCatalog } from '@/lib/municipalityCatalog' +import { classifySecondRoundRole } from '@/lib/secondRoundRole' + +const ARTIFACT_PATH = join(process.cwd(), 'src/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-second-round-2026.json') + +/** + * Pins the committed 2º-turno artifact to the municipality catalog and to the + * audited TSE totals. Drift here means the city report would print the wrong + * swing silently — regenerate with `pnpm build:second-round`. + */ +describe('bahia 2º-turno artifact', () => { + it('covers exactly the municipality catalog slugs', () => { + const missing = municipalityCatalog.filter((entry) => !getBahiaSecondRoundUnit(entry.slug)) + expect(missing.map((entry) => entry.slug)).toEqual([]) + expect(municipalityCatalog).toHaveLength(435) + }) + + it('matches the audited Bahia totals (TSE, 1º turno 2026 + 2022)', () => { + expect(bahiaSecondRoundTotals.lula26).toBe(5_664_771) + expect(bahiaSecondRoundTotals.adversary26).toBe(2_442_585) + expect(bahiaSecondRoundTotals.solla26).toBe(152_049) + expect(bahiaSecondRoundTotals.lula22).toBe(5_873_081) + expect(bahiaSecondRoundTotals.adversary22).toBe(2_047_599) + expect(bahiaSecondRoundTotals.solla22).toBe(128_968) + }) + + it('stores the role the shared rule reclassifies', () => { + for (const entry of municipalityCatalog) { + const unit = getBahiaSecondRoundUnit(entry.slug)! + expect(unit.role).toBe( + classifySecondRoundRole({ + dLula: unit.dLula, + dSolla: unit.dSolla, + solla26: unit.solla26, + }), + ) + } + }) + + it('points Salvador to mobilization in the 4 ZE the analysis called out, and defends 16/4', () => { + for (const zone of [19, 15, 9, 12]) { + expect(getBahiaSecondRoundUnit(`salvador-ze-${zone}`)!.role).toBe('prioridade') + } + for (const zone of [16, 4]) { + expect(getBahiaSecondRoundUnit(`salvador-ze-${zone}`)!.role).toBe('defesa') + } + }) + + it('computes X₁/X₂ with the same formula as the public /potencial scenario', () => { + const unit = getBahiaSecondRoundUnit('salvador-ze-1')! + const potential = secondRoundPotentialOf(unit)! + expect(potential.x1).toBe(unit.comparecimento26 - unit.lula26 - unit.adversary26) + expect(potential.x2).toBe(unit.aptos26 - unit.lula26 - unit.adversary26) + expect(potential.x1).toBe(6_557) + expect(potential.x2).toBe(22_231) + }) + + it('exposes the swing lenses (shares, Solla ratio, adversary capture)', () => { + const feira = getBahiaSecondRoundUnit('feira-de-santana')! + const shares = secondRoundLulaShares(feira) + expect(shares.deltaPp).toBeCloseTo(-4.57, 1) + expect(secondRoundSollaShareOfLula(feira)).toBeCloseTo(1.31, 1) + expect(secondRoundAdversaryCapturePct(feira)).toBeCloseTo(82.4, 1) + // Capture is undefined where Lula did not lose votes. + const expansion = municipalityCatalog + .map((entry) => getBahiaSecondRoundUnit(entry.slug)!) + .find((unit) => unit.dLula >= 0)! + expect(secondRoundAdversaryCapturePct(expansion)).toBeNull() + }) + + it('returns null for an unknown slug', () => { + expect(getBahiaSecondRoundUnit('nao-existe')).toBeNull() + }) + + it('stays under the committed artifact byte budget', () => { + const { size } = statSync(ARTIFACT_PATH) + // Measured at ~287 KB with 435 units; budget with headroom, not a precise pin. + expect(size).toBeLessThan(400 * 1024) + }) +}) diff --git a/tests/unit/cityReportBatchSkill.unit.spec.ts b/tests/unit/cityReportBatchSkill.unit.spec.ts index 01fb8e47..93d037a6 100644 --- a/tests/unit/cityReportBatchSkill.unit.spec.ts +++ b/tests/unit/cityReportBatchSkill.unit.spec.ts @@ -59,6 +59,28 @@ describe('finite researcher receipt (OPS118)', () => { }) }) +describe('skill /relatorio-cidade carries the 2º turno mission', () => { + it('documents the mission, the artifact and the role vocabulary', () => { + expect(skill).toContain('## Missão do 2º turno (Lula × Flávio — 25/10/2026)') + expect(skill, 'the new checklist item must be declared').toContain('segundo_turno') + expect(skill, 'the artifact build command is pinned').toContain('pnpm build:second-round') + expect(skill, 'the committed artifact path is pinned').toContain('bahia-second-round-2026.json') + expect(skill, 'the scenario is never a promise').toMatch( + /votos em jogo, não transferência garantida/i, + ) + for (const role of ['prioridade', 'mobilizacao', 'defesa', 'expansao']) { + expect(skill, `role vocabulary must include ${role}`).toContain(role) + } + }) + + it('makes the researcher research the local 2º turno movement, not the official numbers', () => { + expect(researcher).toContain('segundo_turno') + expect(researcher, 'official numbers come from the artifact').toMatch( + /números oficiais.*artefato/is, + ) + }) +}) + describe('subagent .opencode/agent/relatorio-cidade.md is researcher-only', () => { it('stays a subagent that writes research.json and returns the receipt', () => { expect(researcher).toMatch(/^---\n[\s\S]*mode: subagent[\s\S]*\n---/) diff --git a/tests/unit/cityReportBlocks.unit.spec.ts b/tests/unit/cityReportBlocks.unit.spec.ts index 7678027a..4711a7da 100644 --- a/tests/unit/cityReportBlocks.unit.spec.ts +++ b/tests/unit/cityReportBlocks.unit.spec.ts @@ -403,14 +403,55 @@ const asReport = (value: unknown) => value as ReportShape describe('buildCityReport', () => { const report = asReport(buildCityReport({ snapshot, research, emendas, generatedAt })) - it('builds the 14 deepening sections in the product order', () => { - expect(report.sections).toHaveLength(14) + it('builds the 15 deepening sections in the product order', () => { + expect(report.sections).toHaveLength(15) expect(report.sections[0].title).toMatch(/Conta eleitoral completa/) - expect(report.sections[1].title).toMatch(/Concorrentes no município/) - expect(report.sections[7].title).toMatch(/Atividade econômica/) - expect(report.sections[8].title).toMatch(/Transporte e conexões/) - expect(report.sections[12].title).toMatch(/Abordagem sugerida/) - expect(report.sections[13].title).toMatch(/Fontes e limites/) + expect(report.sections[1].title).toMatch(/2º turno no município/) + expect(report.sections[2].title).toMatch(/Concorrentes no município/) + expect(report.sections[8].title).toMatch(/Atividade econômica/) + expect(report.sections[9].title).toMatch(/Transporte e conexões/) + expect(report.sections[13].title).toMatch(/Abordagem sugerida/) + expect(report.sections[14].title).toMatch(/Fontes e limites/) + }) + + it('brings the 2º turno artifact to the dedicated section', () => { + const section = report.sections.find((entry) => entry.id === 'segundo-turno')! + expect(section.title).toBe('2. 2º turno no município (Lula × Flávio)') + const callout = section.blocks.find((block) => block.kind === 'callout')! + expect(callout.title).toContain('Defesa e comparecimento') + expect(callout.body!.join(' ')).toContain('Captura do adversário') + const table = section.blocks.find((block) => block.kind === 'table')! + const rows = table.rows as unknown as Array> + expect(rows[0]).toEqual( + expect.objectContaining({ + label: 'Lula (PT)', + y22: '211.813', + y26: '194.272', + delta: '−17.541', + }), + ) + // The local movement of the research feeds the section; sem fonte não entra. + expect(section.blocks.some((block) => block.title?.includes('movimento local'))).toBe(true) + }) + + it('gaps the 2º turno research when the researcher did not answer it', () => { + const researchWithout = normalizeResearchInput( + { + municipalitySlug: 'feira-de-santana', + researchedAt: '2026-09-14T10:00:00.000Z', + items: RESEARCH_CHECKLIST_IDS.filter((id) => id !== 'segundo_turno').map((id) => + validItem(id), + ), + gaps: [], + }, + { now: generatedAt }, + ) + const withoutReport = asReport( + buildCityReport({ snapshot, research: researchWithout, emendas, generatedAt }), + ) + const section = withoutReport.sections.find((entry) => entry.id === 'segundo-turno')! + const gap = section.blocks.find((block) => block.kind === 'callout' && block.tone === 'gap')! + expect(gap.body!.join(' ')).toContain('Não pesquisado.') }) it('adds the researched demography, economy and transport data', () => { @@ -504,7 +545,7 @@ describe('buildCityReport', () => { emptyReport.sections.every((section, index) => section.title.startsWith(`${index + 1}. `)), ).toBe(true) expect(emptyReport.sections.find((section) => section.id === 'demografia')!.title).toMatch( - /^5\. /, + /^6\. /, ) }) diff --git a/tests/unit/cityReportRender.unit.spec.ts b/tests/unit/cityReportRender.unit.spec.ts index db214fa3..41e1fbce 100644 --- a/tests/unit/cityReportRender.unit.spec.ts +++ b/tests/unit/cityReportRender.unit.spec.ts @@ -144,13 +144,15 @@ describe('renderReportMd', () => { it('carries the same sections as tables and headings', () => { expect(md).toContain('## 1. Conta eleitoral completa') - expect(md).toContain('## 2. Concorrentes no município (federal e estadual)') - expect(md).not.toContain('## 5. Sinais recentes') + expect(md).toContain('## 2. 2º turno no município (Lula × Flávio)') + expect(md).toContain('> **Papel no 2º turno: Defesa e comparecimento**') + expect(md).toContain('## 3. Concorrentes no município (federal e estadual)') + expect(md).not.toContain('## 6. Sinais recentes') expect(md).not.toContain('Demandas e visitas') - expect(md).toContain('## 6. Atividade econômica (pesquisa)') - expect(md).toContain('## 7. Transporte e conexões (pesquisa)') - expect(md).toContain('## 11. Abordagem sugerida (pesquisa)') - expect(md).toContain('## 12. Fontes e limites') + expect(md).toContain('## 7. Atividade econômica (pesquisa)') + expect(md).toContain('## 8. Transporte e conexões (pesquisa)') + expect(md).toContain('## 12. Abordagem sugerida (pesquisa)') + expect(md).toContain('## 13. Fontes e limites') expect(md).toContain('| Ano | Votos |') }) diff --git a/tests/unit/cityReportResearch.unit.spec.ts b/tests/unit/cityReportResearch.unit.spec.ts index c8000a7f..790f1c8b 100644 --- a/tests/unit/cityReportResearch.unit.spec.ts +++ b/tests/unit/cityReportResearch.unit.spec.ts @@ -25,6 +25,10 @@ const baseResearch = (overrides: Record = {}) => ({ }) describe('normalizeResearchInput', () => { + it('includes the 2º turno local movement in the checklist', () => { + expect(RESEARCH_CHECKLIST_IDS).toContain('segundo_turno') + }) + it('keeps fully sourced items', () => { const research = normalizeResearchInput(baseResearch(), { now }) expect(research.items).toHaveLength(RESEARCH_CHECKLIST_IDS.length)