diff --git a/.agents/skills/relatorio-cidade/SKILL.md b/.agents/skills/relatorio-cidade/SKILL.md
index fe20f2ea..92e02761 100644
--- a/.agents/skills/relatorio-cidade/SKILL.md
+++ b/.agents/skills/relatorio-cidade/SKILL.md
@@ -20,6 +20,49 @@ URL por item) e emendas lidas da fonte oficial **em tempo de geração**. Págin
local). O PDF sai para leitura de bolso; o detalhe das etapas está em
"Pipeline (etapas)".
+## Missão do 2º turno (Lula × Flávio — 25/10/2026)
+
+A partir de 08/10/2026 o relatório não é só pré-viagem de mandato: **cada visita
+também serve à eleição de Lula no 2º turno**. O produto carrega o recorte
+oficial do 1º turno de 2026 na seção **"2º turno no município (Lula × Flávio)"**
+(nº 2, logo depois da conta eleitoral), com:
+
+- **Números oficiais por unidade** (município ou ZE de Salvador, na mesma
+ geografia do catálogo): Lula 2022→2026, adversário (Bolsonaro→Flávio), Solla
+ 1313, comparecimento, abstenção, brancos+nulos e o cenário **X₁/X₂** do
+ `/potencial` — a MESMA fórmula da página pública, nunca uma segunda conta.
+ Fonte: artefato commitado `src/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-second-round-2026.json`
+ (loader `src/lib/bahiaSecondRound.ts`), gerado por `pnpm build:second-round` a
+ partir do TSE 2026 por seção + da análise 2º turno
+ (`analise-eleicoes-2026/nota-solla-2turno`), com os totais da BA pinados.
+- **Papel da cidade** (determinístico, `src/lib/secondRoundRole.ts`):
+ `prioridade` (Lula caiu, Solla cresceu com base ≥200 votos — agenda conjunta e
+ contato pessoal), `mobilizacao` (mesmo quadro, base menor), `defesa` (os dois
+ caíram — comparecimento e contenção, sem vitrine), `expansao` (Lula não caiu —
+ presença).
+- **Movimento local (pesquisa):** o researcher preenche o item de checklist
+ `segundo_turno` (atos, palanques, posições de lideranças locais, o que o 2º
+ turno move na cidade), sempre com `sourceUrl` + `sourceDate`; sem fonte vira
+ lacuna explícita.
+
+Doutrina (de `PERSONA.md` e da nota): **interior = conversão (presença e
+proteção); Salvador = comparecimento (mobilização)**; persuasão em eleição geral
+tem efeito médio ~0 — o papel de Solla é **mobilizar, proteger e dar voz**, não
+converter. `X₁`/`X₂` são **votos em jogo, não transferência garantida**; o
+cenário de 2º turno é hipotético e a seção diz isso. Operação: redutos/vitrine
+(onde Solla é a marca), cinturão do PT local, ZE de Salvador 19/15/9/12
+(mobilização) e contenção em 16/4.
+
+Regras duras da seção:
+
+- os números oficiais (Lula, Flávio, Solla, X₁/X₂) vêm do **artefato** — o
+ researcher **não** os pesquisa; ele pesquisa só o movimento local.
+- não infira comportamento individual (falácia ecológica) nem prometa conversão;
+ a seção informa **onde mobilizar/proteger**, com a incerteza declarada.
+- a seção **não entra na página 1**: a página 1 é medida e falha fechada, e
+ conteúdo determinístico não encolhe no fallback de texto; o dado de 2º turno
+ vive na seção própria.
+
## Lote (várias cidades)
A invocação aceita **um** município (caso de sempre) ou **vários**, separados por
@@ -223,7 +266,8 @@ de pesquisa que cruza para ele.
```
Checklist (`id`s): `prefeito`, `vice`, `relacao_campo`, `vereadores`,
-`disputa_local`, `quem_investe`, `noticias`, `imprensa_local`, `emendas_web`.
+`disputa_local`, `segundo_turno`, `quem_investe`, `noticias`, `imprensa_local`,
+`emendas_web`.
Item sem `sourceUrl`/`sourceDate` é convertido em lacuna pelo validador; item
ausente também. `approach`, `preCandidates`, `leaders`, `leaderAgenda` e
`emendasIndicators` são
@@ -236,6 +280,12 @@ não entra no PDF. Campos de texto livre (`detail`, `hook`, `suggestion`,
`{{fonte:N}}`, resolvidos para `(fonte)` no ponto exato da citação (ver "Links
clicáveis / fonte inline" adiante).
+**`segundo_turno` — movimento local da disputa Lula × Flávio:** atos, palanques,
+posições de lideranças locais e o que o 2º turno move na cidade, com URL+data.
+Os números oficiais do bloco 2º turno (Lula/Flávio/Solla, X₁/X₂) vêm do
+**artefato** (`pnpm build:second-round`) — **não** os pesquise nem os estime; a
+pesquisa é só o movimento local. Sem fonte, vira lacuna explícita na seção.
+
**`leaderAgenda` — pauta provável das lideranças (rede + mesmo campo):** para
cada liderança que importa na visita, registre o que ela tende a priorizar
(Saúde, Educação, Infraestrutura…) e o **gancho recente publicado** que ancora a
@@ -325,19 +375,24 @@ cacheado em `data/relatorios-cidade/.emendas.json` para replay.
`vereadores`, `disputa_local`, `quem_investe`, `emendas_web`): é a única forma
de a página 1 manter o texto que você redigiu. As listas mostram `e mais N`; o
texto integral
- de cada item fica no aprofundamento (ver "respostas integrais" em `14. Fontes e
- limites`).
-- **Seções 2+:** `1. Conta eleitoral` · `2. Concorrentes no município (federal
+ de cada item fica no aprofundamento (ver "respostas integrais" em "Fontes e
+ limites").
+- **Seções 2+:** `1. Conta eleitoral` · `2. 2º turno no município (Lula ×
+ Flávio)` — números oficiais do artefato (Lula/adversário/Solla,
+ comparecimento, abstenção, brancos+nulos e X₁/X₂), o papel da cidade
+ (`prioridade`/`mobilizacao`/`defesa`/`expansao`) e o **movimento local
+ pesquisado** (`segundo_turno`), com o cenário rotulado como hipotético ·
+ `3. Concorrentes no município (federal
e estadual)` — top 5 por votos de 2022 na base TSE, com série 2014/2018/2022
e os prováveis candidatos do campo do prefeito (pesquisa), além da **frente de
- oposição** quando pesquisada (fatos com fonte) · `3. Rede e
+ oposição** quando pesquisada (fatos com fonte) · `4. Rede e
lideranças` — inclui as lideranças locais pesquisadas (ex-prefeitos/vices,
vereadores mais votados, com partido) e a **Pauta das lideranças (pesquisa)**:
pauta provável + gancho recente por liderança da rede/mesmo campo, marcada
- como hipótese · `4. Conjuntura` · `5. Sinais` · `6.
- Demandas e visitas` · `7. Demografia` — IBGE Censo 2022 do artefato +
- **complemento pesquisado** (cor/raça e poder aquisitivo) · `8. Atividade
- econômica (pesquisa)` · `9. Transporte e conexões (pesquisa)` · `10. Acervo
+ como hipótese · `5. Conjuntura` · `6. Sinais` · `7.
+ Demandas e visitas` · `8. Demografia` — IBGE Censo 2022 do artefato +
+ **complemento pesquisado** (cor/raça e poder aquisitivo) · `9. Atividade
+ econômica (pesquisa)` · `10. Transporte e conexões (pesquisa)` · `11. Acervo
de falas` — cada fala com "O que é" (sumário oficial) e "Menção ao município"
(passagem que cita a cidade ou, se o nome não aparece nos trechos, a marcação
do acervo com o nº de municípios), mais **Vídeo** (YouTube no trecho da fala
@@ -346,8 +401,8 @@ cacheado em `data/relatorios-cidade/.emendas.json` para replay.
depois do `eventStartAt`, então 645s viram `t=608s` (`YOUTUBE_VIDEO_OFFSET_SECONDS`);
o `speechAt` da API é o horário do slot, não o início real; fallback para o
VOD da Câmara, que é o clipe do próprio trecho) e **Transcrição** (PDF do
- Diário) quando existirem · `11. Notícias e imprensa` ·
- `12. Panorama regional` · `13. Abordagem sugerida (personas)` · `14. Fontes e
+ Diário) quando existirem · `12. Notícias e imprensa` ·
+ `13. Panorama regional` · `14. Abordagem sugerida (personas)` · `15. Fontes e
limites` — lista as fontes e, antes delas, a tabela **"Pesquisa — respostas
integrais"** com o texto completo de cada item do checklist (o que a página 1
capou).
@@ -410,6 +465,12 @@ cacheado em `data/relatorios-cidade/.emendas.json` para replay.
ataque pessoal. Prioriza o local (operadores na região) sobre o líder estadual e
sinaliza temas de mão dupla; onde a marca do adversário domina, o insumo é para
contraste, não para confronto frontal.
+- **2º turno é cenário, não promessa**: X₁/X₂ são votos em jogo (fórmula do
+ `/potencial`), nunca transferência garantida; a seção é determinística (TSE
+ oficial no artefato) — o researcher pesquisa só o movimento local e o PDF
+ declara a incerteza. Não se infere comportamento individual (falácia
+ ecológica) nem se propõe persuasão onde a evidência diz efeito ~0: o papel de
+ Solla é mobilizar, proteger e dar voz.
- **Falha isolada no lote**: cidade que falha (token inválido/ambíguo, pesquisa
sem fonte suficiente, snapshot×research mismatch) não cancela as demais; o
summary final diz explicitamente o que saiu e o que falhou (sucesso parcial
@@ -419,11 +480,20 @@ cacheado em `data/relatorios-cidade/.emendas.json` para replay.
## Troubleshooting
+- **Seção 2º turno saiu como lacuna**: a unidade não está no artefato oficial —
+ rode `pnpm build:second-round -- --analysis-dir=`
+ (o comando valida totais e versões) e verifique `municipalityCatalog` ×
+ artefato (o teste `tests/unit/bahiaSecondRound.unit.spec.ts` cobre o catálogo).
+- **Movimento local "Não pesquisado."**: o researcher não preencheu o item
+ `segundo_turno`; é lacuna de pesquisa, não falha do build — repita a pesquisa
+ com fonte datada.
- **Página 1 estourou**: o builder aborta com `scrollHeight > útil` e o erro é
açãoável. A página 1 já aplica tetos de conteúdo aos textos da pesquisa
(`PAGE_ONE_*_MAX` em `scripts/lib/cityReportBlocks.mjs`) e preserva o texto
integral no aprofundamento; se ainda estourar, **aperte o teto da pesquisa ou
- corte copy do resumo — nunca mexa no layout para "espremer"**.
+ corte copy do resumo — nunca mexa no layout para "espremer"**. O bloco 2º turno
+ vive na seção própria (nunca na página 1) justamente porque é determinístico e
+ não encolhe no fallback.
- **`tsx` ausente no homeserver**: `pnpm install --prod=false`.
- **API de emendas 429/erro**: o builder degrada para lacuna com URL+motivo;
reexecute depois (o cache só é escrito com resultado utilizável).
diff --git a/.opencode/agent/relatorio-cidade.md b/.opencode/agent/relatorio-cidade.md
index a03fe03f..63ea4365 100644
--- a/.opencode/agent/relatorio-cidade.md
+++ b/.opencode/agent/relatorio-cidade.md
@@ -17,6 +17,10 @@ cidades em paralelo.
2. Fazer a **pesquisa web datada** e escrever
`data/relatorios-cidade/.research.json` no contrato da skill — item sem
`sourceUrl`/`sourceDate` não vai para o arquivo (vira lacuna explícita).
+ O checklist inclui **`segundo_turno`** — o movimento local da disputa Lula ×
+ Flávio na cidade (atos, palanques, posições de lideranças locais), com fonte
+ e data por fato. Os **números oficiais** de 2º turno (Lula/Flávio/Solla,
+ X₁/X₂) vêm do artefato do builder — não os pesquise nem os estime.
3. Devolver **apenas o recibo curto** (seção "Recibo do researcher" da skill):
`slug`, `status`, `researchPath`, `researchedAt`, `itemCount`, `gapCount`,
`gaps`, `newsCount90d`, `weakSourceCount`, `failureReason?`. **Nunca** devolva
@@ -32,4 +36,7 @@ cidades em paralelo.
— artefato gitignored).
- Não invente fato sem fonte; não trate empenho como pagamento; não inclua
telefone/e-mail de liderança.
+- No 2º turno, não prometa transferência de voto nem infira comportamento
+ individual: o item `segundo_turno` é **fato datado** (ato, palanque, posição
+ pública), não análise de cenário nem estimativa de efeito.
- Não edite os scripts nem o layout do relatório para "caber".
diff --git a/package.json b/package.json
index 491c8dce..1532259e 100644
--- a/package.json
+++ b/package.json
@@ -64,6 +64,7 @@
"build:election-aggregates": "cross-env NODE_OPTIONS=\"--no-deprecation --import=tsx/esm --import=./scripts/seed-loader.mjs\" node scripts/build-election-aggregates.mjs",
"build:geometries": "cross-env NODE_OPTIONS=\"--no-deprecation --import=tsx/esm\" node scripts/build-bahia-geometries.mjs",
"build:potencial-secoes": "cross-env NODE_OPTIONS=\"--no-deprecation --import=tsx/esm\" node scripts/build-potencial-secoes-2026.mjs",
+ "build:second-round": "cross-env NODE_OPTIONS=\"--no-deprecation --import=tsx/esm\" node scripts/build-second-round-ba.mjs",
"build:state-deputy-card-assets": "cross-env NODE_OPTIONS=\"--no-deprecation --import=tsx/esm\" node scripts/build-state-deputy-card-assets.mjs",
"build:municipality-zone-geometries": "cross-env NODE_OPTIONS=\"--no-deprecation --import=tsx/esm\" node scripts/build-municipality-zone-geometries.mjs",
"build:tse-city-codes": "cross-env NODE_OPTIONS=\"--no-deprecation --import=tsx/esm\" node scripts/build-bahia-tse-city-codes.mjs",
diff --git a/scripts/build-second-round-ba.mjs b/scripts/build-second-round-ba.mjs
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..14eeea0c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/build-second-round-ba.mjs
@@ -0,0 +1,354 @@
+/**
+ * Builds the committed 2º-turno artifact (`bahia-second-round-2026.json`):
+ * Lula × Flávio in Bahia, 2022 → 1º turno 2026, cut by the same
+ * `municipalityCatalog` geography the campaign uses (Salvador split by ZE).
+ *
+ * Why an artifact: the campaign DB has Solla 2014/2018/2022 and the 2026
+ * estimates, and the official presidential 1º turno 2026 lives in the committed
+ * `public/dados/potencial-secao-2026/BA.json` (per section). Solla's official
+ * 2026 federal result and the 2022 adversary slice come from the internal
+ * analysis repo (analise-eleicoes-2026 / nota-solla-2turno). This builder joins
+ * the two, validates each 2026 number against an independent source, cross-checks
+ * 2022 against `bahia-federal-baseline.json` and pins the BA totals.
+ *
+ * Inputs:
+ * - public/dados/potencial-secao-2026/BA.json TSE 2026 presidente T1 (por seção)
+ * - src/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-federal-baseline.json Solla/Lula 2022 (cross-check)
+ * - --analysis-dir= outputs of analise-eleicoes-2026 (default ../analise-eleicoes-2026/bahia):
+ * solla_municipios.csv, ba_ausentes_bn.csv, salvador_ze_v3.csv, solla_ze_salvador.csv
+ *
+ * Output: src/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-second-round-2026.json
+ * Uso: pnpm build:second-round -- [--analysis-dir=] [--check]
+ *
+ * Never runs at build/deploy time — the artifact is committed (same rule as
+ * `pnpm build:election-aggregates`).
+ */
+
+import { readFile } from 'node:fs/promises'
+import { dirname, join, resolve } from 'node:path'
+import { fileURLToPath } from 'node:url'
+
+import { parse as parseCsvSync } from 'csv-parse/sync'
+
+import { dieWithLabel, parseEqualsFlags, writeRepoFile } from './lib/cli.mjs'
+
+const ROOT = join(dirname(fileURLToPath(import.meta.url)), '..')
+const LABEL = 'build-second-round-ba'
+const die = dieWithLabel(LABEL)
+
+const ARTIFACT_PATH = 'src/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-second-round-2026.json'
+const SHARD_PATH = 'public/dados/potencial-secao-2026/BA.json'
+const BASELINE_PATH = 'src/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-federal-baseline.json'
+const DEFAULT_ANALYSIS_DIR = resolve(ROOT, '..', 'analise-eleicoes-2026', 'bahia')
+
+/**
+ * Audited Bahia totals (TSE, 1º turno 2026, 100% apurado) — sum over the 435
+ * catalog units (Salvador once, through its 19 ZE). Any divergence aborts the
+ * build: a re-published bulk or a changed analysis must be a deliberate PR.
+ */
+const BA_PINS = {
+ aptos26: 11_312_752,
+ comparecimento26: 9_053_601,
+ lula26: 5_664_771,
+ adversary26: 2_442_585,
+ validos26: 8_560_542,
+ lula22: 5_873_081,
+ adversary22: 2_047_599,
+ solla22: 128_968,
+ solla26: 152_049,
+}
+
+const { municipalityCatalog } = await import('../src/lib/municipalityCatalog.ts')
+const { classifySecondRoundRole } = await import('../src/lib/secondRoundRole.ts')
+
+const { flags } = parseEqualsFlags(process.argv.slice(2))
+const analysisDir = resolve(
+ ROOT,
+ typeof flags['analysis-dir'] === 'string' ? flags['analysis-dir'] : DEFAULT_ANALYSIS_DIR,
+)
+const checkOnly = flags.check === true
+
+const int = (value) => {
+ const parsed = Number(value)
+ if (!Number.isFinite(parsed)) die(`Número inválido: ${JSON.stringify(value)}`)
+ return Math.round(parsed)
+}
+
+const readJson = async (relativePath) => {
+ try {
+ return JSON.parse(await readFile(resolve(ROOT, relativePath), 'utf8'))
+ } catch (error) {
+ die(`Falha ao ler ${relativePath}: ${error instanceof Error ? error.message : error}`)
+ }
+}
+
+const readCsv = async (fileName) => {
+ const path = join(analysisDir, fileName)
+ let text
+ try {
+ text = await readFile(path, 'utf8')
+ } catch (error) {
+ die(
+ `Falha ao ler ${path}: ${error instanceof Error ? error.message : error}\n` +
+ ' Passe --analysis-dir=.',
+ )
+ }
+ return parseCsvSync(text, {
+ columns: true,
+ delimiter: ';',
+ skip_empty_lines: true,
+ trim: true,
+ bom: true,
+ relax_quotes: true,
+ relax_column_count: true,
+ })
+}
+
+const indexBy = (rows, key) => {
+ const map = new Map()
+ for (const row of rows) map.set(String(row[key]), row)
+ return map
+}
+
+/**
+ * 2026 president aggregates from the committed per-section shard: one pass over
+ * the 417 municipalities, accumulating `aptos, comparecimento, lula, flávio,
+ * válidos` per município and — for Salvador — per zone (the campaign unit).
+ */
+const aggregateShard = (shard) => {
+ const byMunicipality = new Map()
+ const salVadorByZone = new Map()
+ for (const municipality of shard.municipalities) {
+ const code = String(municipality.code)
+ const total = { aptos: 0, comparecimento: 0, lula: 0, adversary: 0, validos: 0 }
+ for (const [zone, , aptos, comparecimento, lula, adversary, validos] of municipality.sections) {
+ total.aptos += aptos
+ total.comparecimento += comparecimento
+ total.lula += lula
+ total.adversary += adversary
+ total.validos += validos
+ if (code === '38490') {
+ const zoneTotal = salVadorByZone.get(zone) ?? {
+ aptos: 0,
+ comparecimento: 0,
+ lula: 0,
+ adversary: 0,
+ validos: 0,
+ }
+ zoneTotal.aptos += aptos
+ zoneTotal.comparecimento += comparecimento
+ zoneTotal.lula += lula
+ zoneTotal.adversary += adversary
+ zoneTotal.validos += validos
+ salVadorByZone.set(zone, zoneTotal)
+ }
+ }
+ byMunicipality.set(code, total)
+ }
+ return { byMunicipality, salVadorByZone }
+}
+
+const failCheck = (failures) => {
+ if (!failures.length) return
+ die(
+ `Divergência de validação (${failures.length}):\n ` +
+ failures
+ .slice(0, 20)
+ .map((line) => `- ${line}`)
+ .join('\n ') +
+ (failures.length > 20 ? `\n … e mais ${failures.length - 20}.` : ''),
+ )
+}
+
+const main = async () => {
+ const [shard, baseline] = await Promise.all([readJson(SHARD_PATH), readJson(BASELINE_PATH)])
+ const [sollaMunicipios, ausentesBn, salvadorZe, sollaSalvadorZe] = await Promise.all([
+ readCsv('solla_municipios.csv'),
+ readCsv('ba_ausentes_bn.csv'),
+ readCsv('salvador_ze_v3.csv'),
+ readCsv('solla_ze_salvador.csv'),
+ ])
+
+ const sollaByCity = indexBy(sollaMunicipios, 'cd_tse')
+ const ausByCity = indexBy(ausentesBn, 'cd')
+ const salZeByZone = indexBy(salvadorZe, 'zona')
+ const sollaSalZeByZone = indexBy(sollaSalvadorZe, 'zona')
+ const { byMunicipality, salVadorByZone } = aggregateShard(shard)
+
+ const failures = []
+ const units = {}
+ const totals = {
+ aptos22: 0,
+ aptos26: 0,
+ comparecimento22: 0,
+ comparecimento26: 0,
+ abstencao22: 0,
+ abstencao26: 0,
+ brancosNulos22: 0,
+ brancosNulos26: 0,
+ validos22: 0,
+ validos26: 0,
+ lula22: 0,
+ lula26: 0,
+ adversary22: 0,
+ adversary26: 0,
+ solla22: 0,
+ solla26: 0,
+ }
+
+ for (const entry of municipalityCatalog) {
+ const isZone = entry.kind === 'zona'
+ const zoneNumber = entry.zoneNumber ?? null
+ const source = isZone ? sollaSalZeByZone.get(String(zoneNumber).padStart(4, '0')) : null
+ const analysis = isZone ? salZeByZone.get(String(zoneNumber).padStart(4, '0')) : null
+ const cityRow = isZone ? null : sollaByCity.get(entry.tseCityCode)
+ const ausRow = isZone ? null : ausByCity.get(entry.tseCityCode)
+ const shardRow = isZone ? salVadorByZone.get(zoneNumber) : byMunicipality.get(entry.tseCityCode)
+
+ if (!shardRow) {
+ failures.push(`${entry.slug}: sem agregado de 2026 no shard oficial`)
+ continue
+ }
+ if (!isZone && (!cityRow || !ausRow)) {
+ failures.push(`${entry.slug}: sem linha na análise 2º turno (${entry.tseCityCode})`)
+ continue
+ }
+ if (isZone && (!source || !analysis)) {
+ failures.push(`${entry.slug}: sem linha da análise para a ZE ${zoneNumber}`)
+ continue
+ }
+
+ // 2022: análise (primary) — one table per kind, validated below against the
+ // committed TSE baseline (Lula #13 and Solla 1313).
+ const lula22 = int(isZone ? analysis.lula22 : cityRow.lula22)
+ const adversary22 = int(isZone ? analysis.adv22 : cityRow.bolso22)
+ const solla22 = int(isZone ? source.solla22 : cityRow.solla22)
+ const aptos22 = int(isZone ? analysis.te22 : ausRow.aptos22)
+ const abstencao22 = int(isZone ? analysis.abst22 : ausRow.abst22)
+ const comparecimento22 = aptos22 - abstencao22
+ const validos22 = int(isZone ? analysis.val22 : cityRow.validos22)
+ const brancosNulos22 = comparecimento22 - validos22
+
+ // 2026: shard oficial (per section) — the analysis numbers are the check.
+ const lula26 = shardRow.lula
+ const adversary26 = shardRow.adversary
+ const aptos26 = shardRow.aptos
+ const comparecimento26 = shardRow.comparecimento
+ const validos26 = shardRow.validos
+ const abstencao26 = aptos26 - comparecimento26
+ const brancosNulos26 = comparecimento26 - validos26
+ const solla26 = int(isZone ? source.solla26 : cityRow.solla26)
+
+ if (!isZone) {
+ if (lula26 !== int(cityRow.lula26))
+ failures.push(`${entry.slug}: Lula26 shard ${lula26} ≠ análise ${cityRow.lula26}`)
+ if (adversary26 !== int(cityRow.flavio26))
+ failures.push(`${entry.slug}: Flávio26 shard ${adversary26} ≠ análise ${cityRow.flavio26}`)
+ if (aptos26 !== int(ausRow.aptos26))
+ failures.push(`${entry.slug}: aptos26 shard ${aptos26} ≠ análise ${ausRow.aptos26}`)
+ if (comparecimento26 !== int(ausRow.aptos26) - int(ausRow.abst26))
+ failures.push(
+ `${entry.slug}: comp26 shard ${comparecimento26} ≠ análise ${int(ausRow.aptos26) - int(ausRow.abst26)}`,
+ )
+ } else {
+ if (lula26 !== int(analysis.lula26))
+ failures.push(`${entry.slug}: Lula26 shard ${lula26} ≠ análise ${analysis.lula26}`)
+ if (adversary26 !== int(analysis.adv26))
+ failures.push(`${entry.slug}: Flávio26 shard ${adversary26} ≠ análise ${analysis.adv26}`)
+ if (aptos26 !== int(analysis.te26))
+ failures.push(`${entry.slug}: aptos26 shard ${aptos26} ≠ análise ${analysis.te26}`)
+ if (comparecimento26 !== int(analysis.comp26))
+ failures.push(
+ `${entry.slug}: comp26 shard ${comparecimento26} ≠ análise ${analysis.comp26}`,
+ )
+ }
+
+ // 2022 cross-check against the committed Teqo baseline (independent source).
+ const baselineUnit = baseline.municipalities?.[entry.slug]
+ if (!baselineUnit) {
+ failures.push(`${entry.slug}: fora do baseline TSE 2014/2018/2022`)
+ } else {
+ const baselineSolla22 = baselineUnit.votesByYear?.['2022'] ?? null
+ if (baselineSolla22 !== solla22)
+ failures.push(`${entry.slug}: Solla22 baseline ${baselineSolla22} ≠ análise ${solla22}`)
+ const baselineLula22 = baselineUnit.majoritarian2022?.president?.votes ?? null
+ if (baselineLula22 !== lula22)
+ failures.push(`${entry.slug}: Lula22 baseline ${baselineLula22} ≠ análise ${lula22}`)
+ }
+
+ const dLula = lula26 - lula22
+ const dAdversary = adversary26 - adversary22
+ const dSolla = solla26 - solla22
+ const role = classifySecondRoundRole({ dLula, dSolla, solla26 })
+
+ units[entry.slug] = {
+ name: entry.name,
+ kind: entry.kind,
+ tseCityCode: entry.tseCityCode,
+ ibgeCode: entry.ibgeCode,
+ zone: zoneNumber,
+ role,
+ lula22,
+ lula26,
+ dLula,
+ adversary22,
+ adversary26,
+ dAdversary,
+ solla22,
+ solla26,
+ dSolla,
+ aptos22,
+ aptos26,
+ comparecimento22,
+ comparecimento26,
+ abstencao22,
+ abstencao26,
+ brancosNulos22,
+ brancosNulos26,
+ validos22,
+ validos26,
+ }
+
+ for (const key of Object.keys(totals)) totals[key] += units[entry.slug][key]
+ }
+
+ for (const [key, expected] of Object.entries(BA_PINS)) {
+ if (totals[key] !== expected)
+ failures.push(`total BA ${key}: esperado ${expected}, encontrado ${totals[key]}`)
+ }
+ failCheck(failures)
+
+ const artifact = {
+ version: 1,
+ generatedAt: new Date().toISOString(),
+ scope: 'BA — 2º turno Lula × Flávio',
+ provenance:
+ 'TSE 2026 presidente 1º turno por seção (public/dados/potencial-secao-2026/BA.json, oficial) + análise 2º turno da campanha (analise-eleicoes-2026/nota-solla-2turno) para Solla 2026 e a fatia de 2022; 2022 validado contra bahia-federal-baseline.json.',
+ sources: {
+ shard: SHARD_PATH,
+ baseline: BASELINE_PATH,
+ analysisDir:
+ 'analise-eleicoes-2026/bahia (solla_municipios, ba_ausentes_bn, salvador_ze_v3, solla_ze_salvador)',
+ },
+ pins: BA_PINS,
+ totals,
+ units,
+ }
+
+ if (checkOnly) {
+ console.log(`[${LABEL}] OK — ${Object.keys(units).length} unidades, totais batem com os pins.`)
+ return
+ }
+
+ await writeRepoFile({
+ label: LABEL,
+ root: ROOT,
+ relativePath: ARTIFACT_PATH,
+ body: `${JSON.stringify(artifact, null, 2)}\n`,
+ })
+ console.log(
+ `[${LABEL}] ${Object.keys(units).length} unidades · Lula ${totals.lula26} · Flávio ${totals.adversary26} · Solla ${totals.solla26}`,
+ )
+}
+
+await main()
diff --git a/scripts/lib/cityReportBlocks.mjs b/scripts/lib/cityReportBlocks.mjs
index d79eac75..cdb1bf62 100644
--- a/scripts/lib/cityReportBlocks.mjs
+++ b/scripts/lib/cityReportBlocks.mjs
@@ -10,6 +10,14 @@
*/
import { getMunicipalityFederalBaseline } from '../../src/lib/bahiaElectionAggregates.ts'
+import {
+ BAHIA_SECOND_ROUND_GENERATED_AT,
+ getBahiaSecondRoundUnit,
+ secondRoundAdversaryCapturePct,
+ secondRoundLulaShares,
+ secondRoundPotentialOf,
+ secondRoundSollaShareOfLula,
+} from '../../src/lib/bahiaSecondRound.ts'
import { formatEngagementLevelLabel } from '../../src/lib/engagementLevel.ts'
import { getMunicipalityVoteRank } from '../../src/lib/municipalityVoteRank.ts'
import { activityStatusLabels } from '../../src/lib/schemas/activity.ts'
@@ -18,6 +26,7 @@ import {
campaignDemandStatusLabels,
} from '../../src/lib/schemas/campaignDemand.ts'
import { municipalityUpdatePolarityLabels } from '../../src/lib/schemas/municipalityUpdate.ts'
+import { secondRoundRoleGuidance, secondRoundRoleLabels } from '../../src/lib/secondRoundRole.ts'
import { SPEECH_TOPICS } from '../../src/lib/speechFacets.ts'
import {
formatVoteEstimateEndpointsLabel,
@@ -134,6 +143,14 @@ const withInlineSources = (text, sources) => {
return `${text} ${inlineSourceTokens(sources.length)}`
}
+/** "+1.234" / "−208.310" — the 2º-turno deltas never lose the sign. */
+const signedInteger = (value) =>
+ `${value > 0 ? '+' : value < 0 ? '−' : ''}${formatInteger(Math.abs(value))}`
+
+/** "+3,2 p.p." / "−4,0 p.p." — pt-BR decimal, explicit sign. */
+const signedPoints = (value) =>
+ `${value > 0 ? '+' : value < 0 ? '−' : ''}${Math.abs(value).toFixed(1).replace('.', ',')} p.p.`
+
/**
* Página 1 = resumo de uma olhada: a fonte do item entra compacta (pesquisa web
* + data). O texto é o `summary` do researcher quando existe; sem ele, a
@@ -471,6 +488,206 @@ const buildElectoralSection = ({ snapshot }) => {
].filter(Boolean)
}
+/**
+ * Local movement of the 2º turno (web): acts, palanques and positioning of
+ * local leaders in the Lula × Flávio race. A missing item is the explicit gap.
+ */
+const buildSecondRoundResearchBlock = (research) => {
+ const item = researchItemById(research, 'segundo_turno')
+ if (!item) {
+ return gapCallout(
+ [
+ {
+ id: 'segundo_turno',
+ label: 'Movimento local do 2º turno',
+ reason: 'Não pesquisado.',
+ },
+ ],
+ 'Lacuna desta seção',
+ )
+ }
+ const sources = sourcesOf(item)
+ return {
+ kind: 'table',
+ title: '2º turno — movimento local e palanque (pesquisa)',
+ columns: [
+ { key: 'detail', label: 'O que a fonte diz', width: 72 },
+ { key: 'source', label: 'Fonte', width: 28 },
+ ],
+ rows: [
+ {
+ detail: withInlineSources(item.details ?? item.answer, sources),
+ source: formatDateBr(item.sourceDate),
+ sources,
+ },
+ ],
+ note: 'Atos, palanques e posicionamentos locais na disputa Lula × Flávio — fato publicado com fonte datada.',
+ sources: sources.map((url) => ({
+ kind: 'web',
+ label: 'Movimento local do 2º turno',
+ url,
+ date: item.sourceDate,
+ })),
+ }
+}
+
+/**
+ * 2º turno section (Lula × Flávio): deterministic numbers from the committed
+ * artifact (official TSE 2026 president T1 per section, aggregated to the
+ * campaign unit) + the local web movement. The role copy directs the visit
+ * (mobilize/defend); it never promises vote transfer.
+ */
+const buildSecondRoundSection = ({ snapshot, research }) => {
+ const unit = getBahiaSecondRoundUnit(snapshot.municipality.slug)
+ if (!unit) {
+ return [
+ gapCallout(
+ [
+ {
+ id: 'segundo_turno',
+ label: 'Artefato do 2º turno',
+ reason: 'Unidade fora do artefato TSE 2026 — regenere com `pnpm build:second-round`.',
+ },
+ ],
+ 'Lacunas desta seção',
+ ),
+ buildSecondRoundResearchBlock(research),
+ ].filter(Boolean)
+ }
+
+ const potential = secondRoundPotentialOf(unit)
+ const shares = secondRoundLulaShares(unit)
+ const capture = secondRoundAdversaryCapturePct(unit)
+ const sollaRatio = secondRoundSollaShareOfLula(unit)
+ const sources = [
+ sourceOfficial(
+ 'TSE — 1º turno 2026 (presidente, por seção) e 2022; deputado federal 2026',
+ null,
+ null,
+ ),
+ sourceTeqo(
+ 'base Teqo — artefato do 2º turno (pnpm build:second-round)',
+ BAHIA_SECOND_ROUND_GENERATED_AT,
+ ),
+ ]
+
+ const rows = [
+ {
+ label: 'Lula (PT)',
+ y22: formatInteger(unit.lula22),
+ y26: formatInteger(unit.lula26),
+ delta: signedInteger(unit.dLula),
+ },
+ {
+ label: 'Adversário (Bolsonaro→Flávio)',
+ y22: formatInteger(unit.adversary22),
+ y26: formatInteger(unit.adversary26),
+ delta: signedInteger(unit.dAdversary),
+ },
+ {
+ label: 'Solla — dep. federal 1313',
+ y22: formatInteger(unit.solla22),
+ y26: formatInteger(unit.solla26),
+ delta: signedInteger(unit.dSolla),
+ },
+ {
+ label: 'Comparecimento',
+ y22: formatInteger(unit.comparecimento22),
+ y26: formatInteger(unit.comparecimento26),
+ delta: signedInteger(unit.comparecimento26 - unit.comparecimento22),
+ },
+ {
+ label: 'Abstenção',
+ y22: formatInteger(unit.abstencao22),
+ y26: formatInteger(unit.abstencao26),
+ delta: signedInteger(unit.abstencao26 - unit.abstencao22),
+ },
+ {
+ label: 'Brancos + nulos',
+ y22: formatInteger(unit.brancosNulos22),
+ y26: formatInteger(unit.brancosNulos26),
+ delta: signedInteger(unit.brancosNulos26 - unit.brancosNulos22),
+ },
+ ]
+
+ const calloutBody = [secondRoundRoleGuidance[unit.role]]
+ if (capture !== null) {
+ calloutBody.push(
+ `Captura do adversário: ${formatPercent(capture / 100)} da perda de Lula em votos (pode passar de 100% quando o comparecimento cresce).`,
+ )
+ }
+ if (sollaRatio !== null) {
+ calloutBody.push(
+ `Solla 2026 = ${formatPercent(sollaRatio / 100)} dos votos de Lula no recorte — a base local disponível para organizar a mobilização.`,
+ )
+ }
+
+ const kpis = [
+ {
+ label: 'Lula em 2026',
+ value: formatPercent(shares.share26 / 100),
+ hint: `dos válidos · Δ ${signedPoints(shares.deltaPp)} vs 2022`,
+ },
+ {
+ label: 'Votos fora do 2º turno',
+ value: potential ? `X₂ = ${formatInteger(potential.x2)}` : '—',
+ hint: potential
+ ? `X₁ = ${formatInteger(potential.x1)} já no comparecimento; X₂ soma os ausentes`
+ : 'sem cenário para os números do recorte',
+ },
+ {
+ label: 'Solla 2026',
+ value: formatInteger(unit.solla26),
+ hint: `Δ ${signedInteger(unit.dSolla)} vs 2022${
+ sollaRatio !== null ? ` · ${formatPercent(sollaRatio / 100)} dos votos de Lula` : ''
+ }`,
+ },
+ ]
+
+ return [
+ {
+ kind: 'callout',
+ tone: unit.role === 'defesa' ? 'risk' : 'decision',
+ title: `Papel no 2º turno: ${secondRoundRoleLabels[unit.role]}`,
+ body: calloutBody,
+ sources,
+ },
+ { kind: 'kpis', items: kpis, sources: [sources[0]] },
+ {
+ kind: 'table',
+ title: 'A conta 2022 → 1º turno 2026 (presidente e Solla 1313)',
+ columns: [
+ { key: 'label', label: 'Indicador', width: 34 },
+ { key: 'y22', label: '2022', numeric: true, width: 22 },
+ { key: 'y26', label: '2026', numeric: true, width: 22 },
+ { key: 'delta', label: 'Δ', numeric: true, width: 22 },
+ ],
+ rows,
+ note:
+ unit.dLula < 0
+ ? `Captura do adversário = ΔFlávio ÷ |ΔLula| = ${
+ capture === null ? '—' : formatPercent(capture / 100)
+ }; pode passar de 100% porque a perda de Lula não é a única fonte do ganho (comparecimento e terceira via também mudam).`
+ : `Lula não perdeu votos no recorte (Δ ${signedInteger(unit.dLula)}).`,
+ sources,
+ },
+ {
+ kind: 'prose',
+ text: 'X₁ = votos já dentro do comparecimento de 2026 que não foram de Lula nem de Flávio (nulos, brancos e terceira via); X₂ = X₁ + ausentes. São votos em jogo, não transferência garantida: o cenário de 2º turno é hipotético. Persuasão em eleição geral tem efeito médio próximo de zero — o papel de Solla é mobilizar, proteger e dar voz, com contato na última semana.',
+ sources,
+ },
+ buildSecondRoundResearchBlock(research),
+ ].filter(Boolean)
+}
+
+/**
+ * Page-1 one-liner of the 2º turno was intentionally left out: page 1 is a
+ * measured, fail-closed surface that already sits at the budget for the
+ * heaviest cities, and deterministic content cannot be shrunk by the text
+ * fallback. The 2º turno lives in its own section (right after the electoral
+ * account), with the full artifact numbers.
+ */
+
const COMPETITOR_SERIES_YEARS = ['2014', '2018', '2022']
const buildCompetitorsTable = ({ title, rows, referenceYear, readAt }) => ({
@@ -1520,6 +1737,11 @@ export const buildCityReport = ({
title: 'Conta eleitoral completa (2014/2018/2022)',
blocks: buildElectoralSection({ snapshot }),
},
+ {
+ id: 'segundo-turno',
+ title: '2º turno no município (Lula × Flávio)',
+ blocks: buildSecondRoundSection({ snapshot, research }),
+ },
{
id: 'concorrentes',
title: 'Concorrentes no município (federal e estadual)',
diff --git a/scripts/lib/cityReportResearch.mjs b/scripts/lib/cityReportResearch.mjs
index d41b3b60..347ed7ce 100644
--- a/scripts/lib/cityReportResearch.mjs
+++ b/scripts/lib/cityReportResearch.mjs
@@ -17,6 +17,10 @@ const RESEARCH_CHECKLIST = [
{ id: 'relacao_campo', label: 'Relação com o campo (aliado, oposição, neutro)' },
{ id: 'vereadores', label: 'Vereadores e dobradas' },
{ id: 'disputa_local', label: 'Disputa local' },
+ {
+ id: 'segundo_turno',
+ label: '2º turno (Lula × Flávio) — atos, palanques e posições locais',
+ },
{ id: 'quem_investe', label: 'Quem mais investe na cidade (bancada e adversários)' },
{ id: 'noticias', label: 'Notícias da cidade/região (janela ≤90 dias)' },
{ id: 'imprensa_local', label: 'Imprensa e rádio local' },
diff --git a/src/lib/bahiaSecondRound.ts b/src/lib/bahiaSecondRound.ts
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..9e9eee21
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/lib/bahiaSecondRound.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,111 @@
+import artifactJson from '@/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-second-round-2026.json'
+import type { SecondRoundRole } from '@/lib/secondRoundRole'
+import { computeSectionPotential, type SectionPotential } from '@/lib/sectionPotential'
+
+/**
+ * Committed Bahia 2º-turno baseline (Lula × Flávio): official TSE 2026 president
+ * T1 per section (aggregated to the campaign's municipality geography — Salvador
+ * split by ZE), joined with the 2022 presidential slice and Solla's 2026 federal
+ * result. Generated by `pnpm build:second-round` from
+ * `public/dados/potencial-secao-2026/BA.json` + the internal 2º-turno analysis,
+ * validated against `bahia-federal-baseline.json` and the audited BA totals —
+ * never computed at build/request time.
+ *
+ * Read-only and pure: the loader only projects the artifact and runs the SAME
+ * `computeSectionPotential` the public `/potencial` page uses, so the report's
+ * X₁/X₂ can never drift from the site's scenario.
+ */
+
+export type BahiaSecondRoundUnit = {
+ /** Display name ("Jaguaquara" / "Salvador — ZE 19"). */
+ name: string
+ kind: 'municipio' | 'zona'
+ tseCityCode: string
+ ibgeCode: string
+ /** Zone number for Salvador ZE units; null for whole municipalities. */
+ zone: number | null
+ /** Deterministic campaign role (`secondRoundRole.ts`). */
+ role: SecondRoundRole
+ /** Lula's votes in the 2022 presidential race. */
+ lula22: number
+ /** Lula's votes in the 1º turno 2026. */
+ lula26: number
+ /** `lula26 − lula22` (negative = lost votes). */
+ dLula: number
+ /** Bolsonaro 2022 / Flávio 2026 (the same adversary seat across cycles). */
+ adversary22: number
+ adversary26: number
+ dAdversary: number
+ /** Solla (federal deputy 1313): 2022 and 2026 nominal votes. */
+ solla22: number
+ solla26: number
+ dSolla: number
+ aptos22: number
+ aptos26: number
+ comparecimento22: number
+ comparecimento26: number
+ abstencao22: number
+ abstencao26: number
+ /** Blank + null votes (comparecimento − válidos). */
+ brancosNulos22: number
+ brancosNulos26: number
+ validos22: number
+ validos26: number
+}
+
+type BahiaSecondRoundArtifact = {
+ version: number
+ generatedAt: string
+ scope: string
+ provenance: string
+ sources: Record
+ pins: Record
+ totals: Record
+ units: Record
+}
+
+const artifact = artifactJson as BahiaSecondRoundArtifact
+
+export const BAHIA_SECOND_ROUND_GENERATED_AT = artifact.generatedAt
+
+/** One catalog unit (slug from `municipalityCatalog`) or `null` when unknown. */
+export const getBahiaSecondRoundUnit = (slug: string): BahiaSecondRoundUnit | null =>
+ artifact.units[slug] ?? null
+
+export const bahiaSecondRoundTotals = artifact.totals
+
+/**
+ * The 2º-turno scenario for one unit — X₁ (votes already available inside the
+ * 1º-turno comparecimento: nulls + blanks + all third-party votes) and X₂
+ * (X₁ + absentees), with the hypothetical 2nd-round shares. Reuses the public
+ * `/potencial` formula; `null` when the raw counts are inconsistent.
+ */
+export const secondRoundPotentialOf = (unit: BahiaSecondRoundUnit): SectionPotential | null => {
+ const result = computeSectionPotential({
+ aptos: unit.aptos26,
+ comparecimento: unit.comparecimento26,
+ lula: unit.lula26,
+ flavio: unit.adversary26,
+ validos: unit.validos26,
+ })
+ return result.available ? result.potential : null
+}
+
+/** Lula's share of the 1º-turno valid votes (2022 / 2026), in percent. */
+export const secondRoundLulaShares = (
+ unit: BahiaSecondRoundUnit,
+): { share22: number; share26: number; deltaPp: number } => {
+ const share22 = unit.validos22 > 0 ? (unit.lula22 / unit.validos22) * 100 : 0
+ const share26 = unit.validos26 > 0 ? (unit.lula26 / unit.validos26) * 100 : 0
+ return { share22, share26, deltaPp: share26 - share22 }
+}
+
+/** Solla's 2026 votes as a share of Lula's 2026 votes (the local brand ratio). */
+export const secondRoundSollaShareOfLula = (unit: BahiaSecondRoundUnit): number | null =>
+ unit.lula26 > 0 ? (unit.solla26 / unit.lula26) * 100 : null
+
+/** Δ adversary ÷ |Δ Lula| — how much of Lula's loss the adversary captured. */
+export const secondRoundAdversaryCapturePct = (unit: BahiaSecondRoundUnit): number | null => {
+ if (unit.dLula >= 0) return null
+ return (unit.dAdversary / Math.abs(unit.dLula)) * 100
+}
diff --git a/src/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-second-round-2026.json b/src/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-second-round-2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..22bdcbbf
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-second-round-2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,11787 @@
+{
+ "version": 1,
+ "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T04:17:16.763Z",
+ "scope": "BA — 2º turno Lula × Flávio",
+ "provenance": "TSE 2026 presidente 1º turno por seção (public/dados/potencial-secao-2026/BA.json, oficial) + análise 2º turno da campanha (analise-eleicoes-2026/nota-solla-2turno) para Solla 2026 e a fatia de 2022; 2022 validado contra bahia-federal-baseline.json.",
+ "sources": {
+ "shard": "public/dados/potencial-secao-2026/BA.json",
+ "baseline": "src/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-federal-baseline.json",
+ "analysisDir": "analise-eleicoes-2026/bahia (solla_municipios, ba_ausentes_bn, salvador_ze_v3, solla_ze_salvador)"
+ },
+ "pins": {
+ "aptos26": 11312752,
+ "comparecimento26": 9053601,
+ "lula26": 5664771,
+ "adversary26": 2442585,
+ "validos26": 8560542,
+ "lula22": 5873081,
+ "adversary22": 2047599,
+ "solla22": 128968,
+ "solla26": 152049
+ },
+ "totals": {
+ "aptos22": 11283405,
+ "aptos26": 11312752,
+ "comparecimento22": 8874841,
+ "comparecimento26": 9053601,
+ "abstencao22": 2408564,
+ "abstencao26": 2259151,
+ "brancosNulos22": 451833,
+ "brancosNulos26": 493059,
+ "validos22": 8423008,
+ "validos26": 8560542,
+ "lula22": 5873081,
+ "lula26": 5664771,
+ "adversary22": 2047599,
+ "adversary26": 2442585,
+ "solla22": 128968,
+ "solla26": 152049
+ },
+ "units": {
+ "abaira": {
+ "name": "Abaíra",
+ "kind": "municipio",
+ "tseCityCode": "33014",
+ "ibgeCode": "2900108",
+ "zone": null,
+ "role": "defesa",
+ "lula22": 3274,
+ "lula26": 3037,
+ "dLula": -237,
+ "adversary22": 1433,
+ "adversary26": 1651,
+ "dAdversary": 218,
+ "solla22": 30,
+ "solla26": 25,
+ "dSolla": -5,
+ "aptos22": 7181,
+ "aptos26": 6761,
+ "comparecimento22": 5460,
+ "comparecimento26": 5380,
+ "abstencao22": 1721,
+ "abstencao26": 1381,
+ "brancosNulos22": 403,
+ "brancosNulos26": 438,
+ "validos22": 5057,
+ "validos26": 4942
+ },
+ "abare": {
+ "name": "Abaré",
+ "kind": "municipio",
+ "tseCityCode": "33030",
+ "ibgeCode": "2900207",
+ "zone": null,
+ "role": "mobilizacao",
+ "lula22": 8798,
+ "lula26": 8618,
+ "dLula": -180,
+ "adversary22": 2331,
+ "adversary26": 2961,
+ "dAdversary": 630,
+ "solla22": 26,
+ "solla26": 31,
+ "dSolla": 5,
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+ },
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+ "name": "Terra Nova",
+ "kind": "municipio",
+ "tseCityCode": "39330",
+ "ibgeCode": "2931707",
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+ "name": "Tremedal",
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+ "name": "Tucano",
+ "kind": "municipio",
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+ "ibgeCode": "2931905",
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+ "ibgeCode": "2932002",
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+ "ubaitaba": {
+ "name": "Ubaitaba",
+ "kind": "municipio",
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+ "ibgeCode": "2932200",
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+ "validos26": 10214
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+ "name": "Ubatã",
+ "kind": "municipio",
+ "tseCityCode": "39454",
+ "ibgeCode": "2932309",
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+ "uibai": {
+ "name": "Uibaí",
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+ "ibgeCode": "2932408",
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+ "umburanas": {
+ "name": "Umburanas",
+ "kind": "municipio",
+ "tseCityCode": "39489",
+ "ibgeCode": "2932457",
+ "zone": null,
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+ "validos26": 8879
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+ "una": {
+ "name": "Una",
+ "kind": "municipio",
+ "tseCityCode": "39497",
+ "ibgeCode": "2932507",
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+ "validos26": 11938
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+ "urandi": {
+ "name": "Urandi",
+ "kind": "municipio",
+ "tseCityCode": "39519",
+ "ibgeCode": "2932606",
+ "zone": null,
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+ "validos26": 10773
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+ "urucuca": {
+ "name": "Uruçuca",
+ "kind": "municipio",
+ "tseCityCode": "39535",
+ "ibgeCode": "2932705",
+ "zone": null,
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+ "validos26": 13210
+ },
+ "utinga": {
+ "name": "Utinga",
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+ "tseCityCode": "39551",
+ "ibgeCode": "2932804",
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+ "validos26": 9746
+ },
+ "valenca": {
+ "name": "Valença",
+ "kind": "municipio",
+ "tseCityCode": "39578",
+ "ibgeCode": "2932903",
+ "zone": null,
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+ "validos26": 49124
+ },
+ "valente": {
+ "name": "Valente",
+ "kind": "municipio",
+ "tseCityCode": "39594",
+ "ibgeCode": "2933000",
+ "zone": null,
+ "role": "mobilizacao",
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+ "validos26": 16489
+ },
+ "varzea-da-roca": {
+ "name": "Várzea da Roça",
+ "kind": "municipio",
+ "tseCityCode": "39977",
+ "ibgeCode": "2933059",
+ "zone": null,
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+ "brancosNulos26": 600,
+ "validos22": 7702,
+ "validos26": 8092
+ },
+ "varzea-do-poco": {
+ "name": "Várzea do Poço",
+ "kind": "municipio",
+ "tseCityCode": "39616",
+ "ibgeCode": "2933109",
+ "zone": null,
+ "role": "expansao",
+ "lula22": 3717,
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+ "brancosNulos22": 247,
+ "brancosNulos26": 300,
+ "validos22": 5155,
+ "validos26": 5605
+ },
+ "varzea-nova": {
+ "name": "Várzea Nova",
+ "kind": "municipio",
+ "tseCityCode": "39950",
+ "ibgeCode": "2933158",
+ "zone": null,
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+ "lula22": 5571,
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+ "validos26": 8316
+ },
+ "varzedo": {
+ "name": "Varzedo",
+ "kind": "municipio",
+ "tseCityCode": "39624",
+ "ibgeCode": "2933174",
+ "zone": null,
+ "role": "mobilizacao",
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+ "abstencao26": 1600,
+ "brancosNulos22": 267,
+ "brancosNulos26": 372,
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+ "validos26": 7496
+ },
+ "vera-cruz": {
+ "name": "Vera Cruz",
+ "kind": "municipio",
+ "tseCityCode": "39632",
+ "ibgeCode": "2933208",
+ "zone": null,
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+ "lula22": 19474,
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+ "validos26": 27886
+ },
+ "vereda": {
+ "name": "Vereda",
+ "kind": "municipio",
+ "tseCityCode": "39640",
+ "ibgeCode": "2933257",
+ "zone": null,
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+ "brancosNulos26": 193,
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+ "validos26": 4910
+ },
+ "vitoria-da-conquista": {
+ "name": "Vitória da Conquista",
+ "kind": "municipio",
+ "tseCityCode": "39659",
+ "ibgeCode": "2933307",
+ "zone": null,
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+ "validos26": 204387
+ },
+ "wagner": {
+ "name": "Wagner",
+ "kind": "municipio",
+ "tseCityCode": "39675",
+ "ibgeCode": "2933406",
+ "zone": null,
+ "role": "defesa",
+ "lula22": 3884,
+ "lula26": 3730,
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+ "validos26": 5160
+ },
+ "wanderley": {
+ "name": "Wanderley",
+ "kind": "municipio",
+ "tseCityCode": "39993",
+ "ibgeCode": "2933455",
+ "zone": null,
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+ "brancosNulos22": 229,
+ "brancosNulos26": 254,
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+ "validos26": 8240
+ },
+ "wenceslau-guimaraes": {
+ "name": "Wenceslau Guimarães",
+ "kind": "municipio",
+ "tseCityCode": "39691",
+ "ibgeCode": "2933505",
+ "zone": null,
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+ "lula26": 7981,
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+ "brancosNulos26": 658,
+ "validos22": 12100,
+ "validos26": 12418
+ },
+ "xique-xique": {
+ "name": "Xique-Xique",
+ "kind": "municipio",
+ "tseCityCode": "39713",
+ "ibgeCode": "2933604",
+ "zone": null,
+ "role": "defesa",
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+ "lula26": 18111,
+ "dLula": -1717,
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+ "abstencao26": 7968,
+ "brancosNulos22": 1234,
+ "brancosNulos26": 1376,
+ "validos22": 25741,
+ "validos26": 26040
+ }
+ }
+}
diff --git a/src/lib/secondRoundRole.ts b/src/lib/secondRoundRole.ts
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..ef92353c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/lib/secondRoundRole.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+/**
+ * The deterministic role of one 2º-turno unit (município or Salvador ZE) in the
+ * Lula × Flávio campaign — the shared rule between the artifact builder
+ * (`pnpm build:second-round`) and the city report / briefing family. Pure: no
+ * data access, so the builder and the renderers can never disagree.
+ *
+ * The classification comes from the Bahia 1º-turn analysis (2022→2026):
+ * where Lula lost votes AND the local PT brand (Solla 1313) grew, mobilizing is
+ * safe; where both fell, the task is defense/turnout. Persuasão em eleição
+ * geral tem efeito médio ~0 — the role copy points the visit, it does not
+ * promise vote transfer.
+ */
+
+export type SecondRoundRole = 'prioridade' | 'mobilizacao' | 'defesa' | 'expansao'
+
+export type SecondRoundSwingInput = {
+ /** Δ Lula (2026 − 2022), in votes; negative = lost votes. */
+ dLula: number
+ /** Δ Solla (2026 − 2022), in votes. */
+ dSolla: number
+ /** Solla's 2026 votes — sizes the local base (priority threshold ≥200). */
+ solla26: number
+}
+
+/**
+ * `prioridade` — Lula fell, Solla grew with a relevant base (≥200 votes): the
+ * operational heart (joint Lula–Solla agenda, person-to-person contact).
+ * `mobilizacao` — same swing, smaller base: leaders + geolocated digital.
+ * `defesa` — both fell: turnout/defense, no showcase.
+ * `expansao` — Lula did not lose here: keep presence and mobilize.
+ */
+export const classifySecondRoundRole = ({
+ dLula,
+ dSolla,
+ solla26,
+}: SecondRoundSwingInput): SecondRoundRole => {
+ if (dLula < 0) {
+ if (dSolla > 0) return solla26 >= 200 ? 'prioridade' : 'mobilizacao'
+ return 'defesa'
+ }
+ return 'expansao'
+}
+
+export const secondRoundRoleLabels: Record = {
+ prioridade: 'Mobilização segura — prioridade',
+ mobilizacao: 'Mobilização segura',
+ defesa: 'Defesa e comparecimento',
+ expansao: 'Presença — Lula não perdeu aqui',
+}
+
+export const secondRoundRoleGuidance: Record = {
+ prioridade:
+ 'Lula perdeu votos aqui e a marca local (Solla) cresceu com base relevante (≥200 votos): prioridade de mobilização — agenda conjunta Lula–Solla, contato pessoal e de vizinhança; o adversário ainda captura parte da perda.',
+ mobilizacao:
+ 'Lula perdeu votos e Solla cresceu: mobilização segura com base menor — lideranças locais, digital geolocalizado e contato dirigido.',
+ defesa:
+ 'Lula e Solla caíram juntos: base em erosão — a tarefa primária é comparecimento e defesa do voto já conquistado; Solla fala para a própria base, sem vitrine.',
+ expansao:
+ 'Lula não perdeu votos neste recorte (ou ganhou): manter presença e mobilização; persuasão em eleição geral tem efeito médio próximo de zero.',
+}
diff --git a/tests/unit/bahiaSecondRound.unit.spec.ts b/tests/unit/bahiaSecondRound.unit.spec.ts
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..3548f367
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tests/unit/bahiaSecondRound.unit.spec.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,93 @@
+import { statSync } from 'node:fs'
+import { join } from 'node:path'
+
+import { describe, expect, it } from 'vitest'
+
+import {
+ bahiaSecondRoundTotals,
+ getBahiaSecondRoundUnit,
+ secondRoundAdversaryCapturePct,
+ secondRoundLulaShares,
+ secondRoundPotentialOf,
+ secondRoundSollaShareOfLula,
+} from '@/lib/bahiaSecondRound'
+import { municipalityCatalog } from '@/lib/municipalityCatalog'
+import { classifySecondRoundRole } from '@/lib/secondRoundRole'
+
+const ARTIFACT_PATH = join(process.cwd(), 'src/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-second-round-2026.json')
+
+/**
+ * Pins the committed 2º-turno artifact to the municipality catalog and to the
+ * audited TSE totals. Drift here means the city report would print the wrong
+ * swing silently — regenerate with `pnpm build:second-round`.
+ */
+describe('bahia 2º-turno artifact', () => {
+ it('covers exactly the municipality catalog slugs', () => {
+ const missing = municipalityCatalog.filter((entry) => !getBahiaSecondRoundUnit(entry.slug))
+ expect(missing.map((entry) => entry.slug)).toEqual([])
+ expect(municipalityCatalog).toHaveLength(435)
+ })
+
+ it('matches the audited Bahia totals (TSE, 1º turno 2026 + 2022)', () => {
+ expect(bahiaSecondRoundTotals.lula26).toBe(5_664_771)
+ expect(bahiaSecondRoundTotals.adversary26).toBe(2_442_585)
+ expect(bahiaSecondRoundTotals.solla26).toBe(152_049)
+ expect(bahiaSecondRoundTotals.lula22).toBe(5_873_081)
+ expect(bahiaSecondRoundTotals.adversary22).toBe(2_047_599)
+ expect(bahiaSecondRoundTotals.solla22).toBe(128_968)
+ })
+
+ it('stores the role the shared rule reclassifies', () => {
+ for (const entry of municipalityCatalog) {
+ const unit = getBahiaSecondRoundUnit(entry.slug)!
+ expect(unit.role).toBe(
+ classifySecondRoundRole({
+ dLula: unit.dLula,
+ dSolla: unit.dSolla,
+ solla26: unit.solla26,
+ }),
+ )
+ }
+ })
+
+ it('points Salvador to mobilization in the 4 ZE the analysis called out, and defends 16/4', () => {
+ for (const zone of [19, 15, 9, 12]) {
+ expect(getBahiaSecondRoundUnit(`salvador-ze-${zone}`)!.role).toBe('prioridade')
+ }
+ for (const zone of [16, 4]) {
+ expect(getBahiaSecondRoundUnit(`salvador-ze-${zone}`)!.role).toBe('defesa')
+ }
+ })
+
+ it('computes X₁/X₂ with the same formula as the public /potencial scenario', () => {
+ const unit = getBahiaSecondRoundUnit('salvador-ze-1')!
+ const potential = secondRoundPotentialOf(unit)!
+ expect(potential.x1).toBe(unit.comparecimento26 - unit.lula26 - unit.adversary26)
+ expect(potential.x2).toBe(unit.aptos26 - unit.lula26 - unit.adversary26)
+ expect(potential.x1).toBe(6_557)
+ expect(potential.x2).toBe(22_231)
+ })
+
+ it('exposes the swing lenses (shares, Solla ratio, adversary capture)', () => {
+ const feira = getBahiaSecondRoundUnit('feira-de-santana')!
+ const shares = secondRoundLulaShares(feira)
+ expect(shares.deltaPp).toBeCloseTo(-4.57, 1)
+ expect(secondRoundSollaShareOfLula(feira)).toBeCloseTo(1.31, 1)
+ expect(secondRoundAdversaryCapturePct(feira)).toBeCloseTo(82.4, 1)
+ // Capture is undefined where Lula did not lose votes.
+ const expansion = municipalityCatalog
+ .map((entry) => getBahiaSecondRoundUnit(entry.slug)!)
+ .find((unit) => unit.dLula >= 0)!
+ expect(secondRoundAdversaryCapturePct(expansion)).toBeNull()
+ })
+
+ it('returns null for an unknown slug', () => {
+ expect(getBahiaSecondRoundUnit('nao-existe')).toBeNull()
+ })
+
+ it('stays under the committed artifact byte budget', () => {
+ const { size } = statSync(ARTIFACT_PATH)
+ // Measured at ~287 KB with 435 units; budget with headroom, not a precise pin.
+ expect(size).toBeLessThan(400 * 1024)
+ })
+})
diff --git a/tests/unit/cityReportBatchSkill.unit.spec.ts b/tests/unit/cityReportBatchSkill.unit.spec.ts
index 01fb8e47..93d037a6 100644
--- a/tests/unit/cityReportBatchSkill.unit.spec.ts
+++ b/tests/unit/cityReportBatchSkill.unit.spec.ts
@@ -59,6 +59,28 @@ describe('finite researcher receipt (OPS118)', () => {
})
})
+describe('skill /relatorio-cidade carries the 2º turno mission', () => {
+ it('documents the mission, the artifact and the role vocabulary', () => {
+ expect(skill).toContain('## Missão do 2º turno (Lula × Flávio — 25/10/2026)')
+ expect(skill, 'the new checklist item must be declared').toContain('segundo_turno')
+ expect(skill, 'the artifact build command is pinned').toContain('pnpm build:second-round')
+ expect(skill, 'the committed artifact path is pinned').toContain('bahia-second-round-2026.json')
+ expect(skill, 'the scenario is never a promise').toMatch(
+ /votos em jogo, não transferência garantida/i,
+ )
+ for (const role of ['prioridade', 'mobilizacao', 'defesa', 'expansao']) {
+ expect(skill, `role vocabulary must include ${role}`).toContain(role)
+ }
+ })
+
+ it('makes the researcher research the local 2º turno movement, not the official numbers', () => {
+ expect(researcher).toContain('segundo_turno')
+ expect(researcher, 'official numbers come from the artifact').toMatch(
+ /números oficiais.*artefato/is,
+ )
+ })
+})
+
describe('subagent .opencode/agent/relatorio-cidade.md is researcher-only', () => {
it('stays a subagent that writes research.json and returns the receipt', () => {
expect(researcher).toMatch(/^---\n[\s\S]*mode: subagent[\s\S]*\n---/)
diff --git a/tests/unit/cityReportBlocks.unit.spec.ts b/tests/unit/cityReportBlocks.unit.spec.ts
index 7678027a..4711a7da 100644
--- a/tests/unit/cityReportBlocks.unit.spec.ts
+++ b/tests/unit/cityReportBlocks.unit.spec.ts
@@ -403,14 +403,55 @@ const asReport = (value: unknown) => value as ReportShape
describe('buildCityReport', () => {
const report = asReport(buildCityReport({ snapshot, research, emendas, generatedAt }))
- it('builds the 14 deepening sections in the product order', () => {
- expect(report.sections).toHaveLength(14)
+ it('builds the 15 deepening sections in the product order', () => {
+ expect(report.sections).toHaveLength(15)
expect(report.sections[0].title).toMatch(/Conta eleitoral completa/)
- expect(report.sections[1].title).toMatch(/Concorrentes no município/)
- expect(report.sections[7].title).toMatch(/Atividade econômica/)
- expect(report.sections[8].title).toMatch(/Transporte e conexões/)
- expect(report.sections[12].title).toMatch(/Abordagem sugerida/)
- expect(report.sections[13].title).toMatch(/Fontes e limites/)
+ expect(report.sections[1].title).toMatch(/2º turno no município/)
+ expect(report.sections[2].title).toMatch(/Concorrentes no município/)
+ expect(report.sections[8].title).toMatch(/Atividade econômica/)
+ expect(report.sections[9].title).toMatch(/Transporte e conexões/)
+ expect(report.sections[13].title).toMatch(/Abordagem sugerida/)
+ expect(report.sections[14].title).toMatch(/Fontes e limites/)
+ })
+
+ it('brings the 2º turno artifact to the dedicated section', () => {
+ const section = report.sections.find((entry) => entry.id === 'segundo-turno')!
+ expect(section.title).toBe('2. 2º turno no município (Lula × Flávio)')
+ const callout = section.blocks.find((block) => block.kind === 'callout')!
+ expect(callout.title).toContain('Defesa e comparecimento')
+ expect(callout.body!.join(' ')).toContain('Captura do adversário')
+ const table = section.blocks.find((block) => block.kind === 'table')!
+ const rows = table.rows as unknown as Array>
+ expect(rows[0]).toEqual(
+ expect.objectContaining({
+ label: 'Lula (PT)',
+ y22: '211.813',
+ y26: '194.272',
+ delta: '−17.541',
+ }),
+ )
+ // The local movement of the research feeds the section; sem fonte não entra.
+ expect(section.blocks.some((block) => block.title?.includes('movimento local'))).toBe(true)
+ })
+
+ it('gaps the 2º turno research when the researcher did not answer it', () => {
+ const researchWithout = normalizeResearchInput(
+ {
+ municipalitySlug: 'feira-de-santana',
+ researchedAt: '2026-09-14T10:00:00.000Z',
+ items: RESEARCH_CHECKLIST_IDS.filter((id) => id !== 'segundo_turno').map((id) =>
+ validItem(id),
+ ),
+ gaps: [],
+ },
+ { now: generatedAt },
+ )
+ const withoutReport = asReport(
+ buildCityReport({ snapshot, research: researchWithout, emendas, generatedAt }),
+ )
+ const section = withoutReport.sections.find((entry) => entry.id === 'segundo-turno')!
+ const gap = section.blocks.find((block) => block.kind === 'callout' && block.tone === 'gap')!
+ expect(gap.body!.join(' ')).toContain('Não pesquisado.')
})
it('adds the researched demography, economy and transport data', () => {
@@ -504,7 +545,7 @@ describe('buildCityReport', () => {
emptyReport.sections.every((section, index) => section.title.startsWith(`${index + 1}. `)),
).toBe(true)
expect(emptyReport.sections.find((section) => section.id === 'demografia')!.title).toMatch(
- /^5\. /,
+ /^6\. /,
)
})
diff --git a/tests/unit/cityReportRender.unit.spec.ts b/tests/unit/cityReportRender.unit.spec.ts
index db214fa3..41e1fbce 100644
--- a/tests/unit/cityReportRender.unit.spec.ts
+++ b/tests/unit/cityReportRender.unit.spec.ts
@@ -144,13 +144,15 @@ describe('renderReportMd', () => {
it('carries the same sections as tables and headings', () => {
expect(md).toContain('## 1. Conta eleitoral completa')
- expect(md).toContain('## 2. Concorrentes no município (federal e estadual)')
- expect(md).not.toContain('## 5. Sinais recentes')
+ expect(md).toContain('## 2. 2º turno no município (Lula × Flávio)')
+ expect(md).toContain('> **Papel no 2º turno: Defesa e comparecimento**')
+ expect(md).toContain('## 3. Concorrentes no município (federal e estadual)')
+ expect(md).not.toContain('## 6. Sinais recentes')
expect(md).not.toContain('Demandas e visitas')
- expect(md).toContain('## 6. Atividade econômica (pesquisa)')
- expect(md).toContain('## 7. Transporte e conexões (pesquisa)')
- expect(md).toContain('## 11. Abordagem sugerida (pesquisa)')
- expect(md).toContain('## 12. Fontes e limites')
+ expect(md).toContain('## 7. Atividade econômica (pesquisa)')
+ expect(md).toContain('## 8. Transporte e conexões (pesquisa)')
+ expect(md).toContain('## 12. Abordagem sugerida (pesquisa)')
+ expect(md).toContain('## 13. Fontes e limites')
expect(md).toContain('| Ano | Votos |')
})
diff --git a/tests/unit/cityReportResearch.unit.spec.ts b/tests/unit/cityReportResearch.unit.spec.ts
index c8000a7f..790f1c8b 100644
--- a/tests/unit/cityReportResearch.unit.spec.ts
+++ b/tests/unit/cityReportResearch.unit.spec.ts
@@ -25,6 +25,10 @@ const baseResearch = (overrides: Record = {}) => ({
})
describe('normalizeResearchInput', () => {
+ it('includes the 2º turno local movement in the checklist', () => {
+ expect(RESEARCH_CHECKLIST_IDS).toContain('segundo_turno')
+ })
+
it('keeps fully sourced items', () => {
const research = normalizeResearchInput(baseResearch(), { now })
expect(research.items).toHaveLength(RESEARCH_CHECKLIST_IDS.length)