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9fae859c0d
Artefato oficial por unidade (município e ZE de Salvador): TSE 2026 presidente por seção + Solla 2026 e a fatia de 2022 da análise 2º turno; cada número validado contra o baseline TSE e os totais da BA pinados (pnpm build:second-round). O relatório ganha a seção "2º turno no município (Lula × Flávio)" com X₁/X₂ pela mesma fórmula do /potencial, o papel determinístico da cidade (prioridade/mobilizacao/defesa/expansao) e o novo item de pesquisa segundo_turno (movimento local com fonte); a seção fica fora da página 1 porque é determinística e a página 1 falha fechada por medição.
354 lines
13 KiB
JavaScript
354 lines
13 KiB
JavaScript
/**
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* Builds the committed 2º-turno artifact (`bahia-second-round-2026.json`):
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* Lula × Flávio in Bahia, 2022 → 1º turno 2026, cut by the same
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* `municipalityCatalog` geography the campaign uses (Salvador split by ZE).
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*
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* Why an artifact: the campaign DB has Solla 2014/2018/2022 and the 2026
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* estimates, and the official presidential 1º turno 2026 lives in the committed
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* `public/dados/potencial-secao-2026/BA.json` (per section). Solla's official
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* 2026 federal result and the 2022 adversary slice come from the internal
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* analysis repo (analise-eleicoes-2026 / nota-solla-2turno). This builder joins
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* the two, validates each 2026 number against an independent source, cross-checks
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* 2022 against `bahia-federal-baseline.json` and pins the BA totals.
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*
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* Inputs:
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* - public/dados/potencial-secao-2026/BA.json TSE 2026 presidente T1 (por seção)
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* - src/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-federal-baseline.json Solla/Lula 2022 (cross-check)
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* - --analysis-dir=<dir> outputs of analise-eleicoes-2026 (default ../analise-eleicoes-2026/bahia):
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* solla_municipios.csv, ba_ausentes_bn.csv, salvador_ze_v3.csv, solla_ze_salvador.csv
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*
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* Output: src/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-second-round-2026.json
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* Uso: pnpm build:second-round -- [--analysis-dir=<dir>] [--check]
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*
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* Never runs at build/deploy time — the artifact is committed (same rule as
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* `pnpm build:election-aggregates`).
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*/
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import { readFile } from 'node:fs/promises'
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import { dirname, join, resolve } from 'node:path'
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import { fileURLToPath } from 'node:url'
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import { parse as parseCsvSync } from 'csv-parse/sync'
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import { dieWithLabel, parseEqualsFlags, writeRepoFile } from './lib/cli.mjs'
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const ROOT = join(dirname(fileURLToPath(import.meta.url)), '..')
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const LABEL = 'build-second-round-ba'
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const die = dieWithLabel(LABEL)
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const ARTIFACT_PATH = 'src/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-second-round-2026.json'
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const SHARD_PATH = 'public/dados/potencial-secao-2026/BA.json'
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const BASELINE_PATH = 'src/lib/electionAggregates/bahia-federal-baseline.json'
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const DEFAULT_ANALYSIS_DIR = resolve(ROOT, '..', 'analise-eleicoes-2026', 'bahia')
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/**
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* Audited Bahia totals (TSE, 1º turno 2026, 100% apurado) — sum over the 435
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* catalog units (Salvador once, through its 19 ZE). Any divergence aborts the
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* build: a re-published bulk or a changed analysis must be a deliberate PR.
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*/
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const BA_PINS = {
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aptos26: 11_312_752,
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comparecimento26: 9_053_601,
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lula26: 5_664_771,
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adversary26: 2_442_585,
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validos26: 8_560_542,
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lula22: 5_873_081,
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adversary22: 2_047_599,
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solla22: 128_968,
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solla26: 152_049,
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}
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const { municipalityCatalog } = await import('../src/lib/municipalityCatalog.ts')
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const { classifySecondRoundRole } = await import('../src/lib/secondRoundRole.ts')
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const { flags } = parseEqualsFlags(process.argv.slice(2))
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const analysisDir = resolve(
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ROOT,
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typeof flags['analysis-dir'] === 'string' ? flags['analysis-dir'] : DEFAULT_ANALYSIS_DIR,
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)
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const checkOnly = flags.check === true
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const int = (value) => {
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const parsed = Number(value)
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if (!Number.isFinite(parsed)) die(`Número inválido: ${JSON.stringify(value)}`)
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return Math.round(parsed)
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}
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const readJson = async (relativePath) => {
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try {
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return JSON.parse(await readFile(resolve(ROOT, relativePath), 'utf8'))
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} catch (error) {
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die(`Falha ao ler ${relativePath}: ${error instanceof Error ? error.message : error}`)
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}
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}
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const readCsv = async (fileName) => {
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const path = join(analysisDir, fileName)
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let text
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try {
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text = await readFile(path, 'utf8')
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} catch (error) {
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die(
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`Falha ao ler ${path}: ${error instanceof Error ? error.message : error}\n` +
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' Passe --analysis-dir=<diretório com os CSVs da análise 2º turno>.',
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)
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}
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return parseCsvSync(text, {
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columns: true,
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delimiter: ';',
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skip_empty_lines: true,
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trim: true,
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bom: true,
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relax_quotes: true,
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relax_column_count: true,
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})
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}
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const indexBy = (rows, key) => {
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const map = new Map()
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for (const row of rows) map.set(String(row[key]), row)
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return map
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}
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/**
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* 2026 president aggregates from the committed per-section shard: one pass over
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* the 417 municipalities, accumulating `aptos, comparecimento, lula, flávio,
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* válidos` per município and — for Salvador — per zone (the campaign unit).
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*/
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const aggregateShard = (shard) => {
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const byMunicipality = new Map()
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const salVadorByZone = new Map()
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for (const municipality of shard.municipalities) {
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const code = String(municipality.code)
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const total = { aptos: 0, comparecimento: 0, lula: 0, adversary: 0, validos: 0 }
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for (const [zone, , aptos, comparecimento, lula, adversary, validos] of municipality.sections) {
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total.aptos += aptos
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total.comparecimento += comparecimento
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total.lula += lula
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total.adversary += adversary
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total.validos += validos
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if (code === '38490') {
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const zoneTotal = salVadorByZone.get(zone) ?? {
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aptos: 0,
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comparecimento: 0,
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lula: 0,
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adversary: 0,
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validos: 0,
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}
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zoneTotal.aptos += aptos
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zoneTotal.comparecimento += comparecimento
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zoneTotal.lula += lula
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zoneTotal.adversary += adversary
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zoneTotal.validos += validos
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salVadorByZone.set(zone, zoneTotal)
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}
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}
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byMunicipality.set(code, total)
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}
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return { byMunicipality, salVadorByZone }
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}
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const failCheck = (failures) => {
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if (!failures.length) return
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die(
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`Divergência de validação (${failures.length}):\n ` +
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failures
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.slice(0, 20)
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.map((line) => `- ${line}`)
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.join('\n ') +
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(failures.length > 20 ? `\n … e mais ${failures.length - 20}.` : ''),
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)
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}
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const main = async () => {
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const [shard, baseline] = await Promise.all([readJson(SHARD_PATH), readJson(BASELINE_PATH)])
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const [sollaMunicipios, ausentesBn, salvadorZe, sollaSalvadorZe] = await Promise.all([
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readCsv('solla_municipios.csv'),
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readCsv('ba_ausentes_bn.csv'),
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readCsv('salvador_ze_v3.csv'),
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readCsv('solla_ze_salvador.csv'),
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])
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const sollaByCity = indexBy(sollaMunicipios, 'cd_tse')
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const ausByCity = indexBy(ausentesBn, 'cd')
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const salZeByZone = indexBy(salvadorZe, 'zona')
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const sollaSalZeByZone = indexBy(sollaSalvadorZe, 'zona')
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const { byMunicipality, salVadorByZone } = aggregateShard(shard)
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const failures = []
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const units = {}
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const totals = {
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aptos22: 0,
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aptos26: 0,
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comparecimento22: 0,
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comparecimento26: 0,
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abstencao22: 0,
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abstencao26: 0,
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brancosNulos22: 0,
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brancosNulos26: 0,
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validos22: 0,
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validos26: 0,
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lula22: 0,
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lula26: 0,
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adversary22: 0,
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adversary26: 0,
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solla22: 0,
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solla26: 0,
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}
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for (const entry of municipalityCatalog) {
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const isZone = entry.kind === 'zona'
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const zoneNumber = entry.zoneNumber ?? null
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const source = isZone ? sollaSalZeByZone.get(String(zoneNumber).padStart(4, '0')) : null
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const analysis = isZone ? salZeByZone.get(String(zoneNumber).padStart(4, '0')) : null
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const cityRow = isZone ? null : sollaByCity.get(entry.tseCityCode)
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const ausRow = isZone ? null : ausByCity.get(entry.tseCityCode)
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const shardRow = isZone ? salVadorByZone.get(zoneNumber) : byMunicipality.get(entry.tseCityCode)
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if (!shardRow) {
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failures.push(`${entry.slug}: sem agregado de 2026 no shard oficial`)
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continue
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}
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if (!isZone && (!cityRow || !ausRow)) {
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failures.push(`${entry.slug}: sem linha na análise 2º turno (${entry.tseCityCode})`)
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continue
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}
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if (isZone && (!source || !analysis)) {
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failures.push(`${entry.slug}: sem linha da análise para a ZE ${zoneNumber}`)
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continue
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}
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// 2022: análise (primary) — one table per kind, validated below against the
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// committed TSE baseline (Lula #13 and Solla 1313).
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const lula22 = int(isZone ? analysis.lula22 : cityRow.lula22)
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const adversary22 = int(isZone ? analysis.adv22 : cityRow.bolso22)
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const solla22 = int(isZone ? source.solla22 : cityRow.solla22)
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const aptos22 = int(isZone ? analysis.te22 : ausRow.aptos22)
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const abstencao22 = int(isZone ? analysis.abst22 : ausRow.abst22)
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const comparecimento22 = aptos22 - abstencao22
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const validos22 = int(isZone ? analysis.val22 : cityRow.validos22)
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const brancosNulos22 = comparecimento22 - validos22
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// 2026: shard oficial (per section) — the analysis numbers are the check.
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const lula26 = shardRow.lula
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const adversary26 = shardRow.adversary
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const aptos26 = shardRow.aptos
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const comparecimento26 = shardRow.comparecimento
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const validos26 = shardRow.validos
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const abstencao26 = aptos26 - comparecimento26
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const brancosNulos26 = comparecimento26 - validos26
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const solla26 = int(isZone ? source.solla26 : cityRow.solla26)
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if (!isZone) {
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if (lula26 !== int(cityRow.lula26))
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failures.push(`${entry.slug}: Lula26 shard ${lula26} ≠ análise ${cityRow.lula26}`)
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if (adversary26 !== int(cityRow.flavio26))
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failures.push(`${entry.slug}: Flávio26 shard ${adversary26} ≠ análise ${cityRow.flavio26}`)
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if (aptos26 !== int(ausRow.aptos26))
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failures.push(`${entry.slug}: aptos26 shard ${aptos26} ≠ análise ${ausRow.aptos26}`)
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if (comparecimento26 !== int(ausRow.aptos26) - int(ausRow.abst26))
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failures.push(
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`${entry.slug}: comp26 shard ${comparecimento26} ≠ análise ${int(ausRow.aptos26) - int(ausRow.abst26)}`,
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)
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} else {
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if (lula26 !== int(analysis.lula26))
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failures.push(`${entry.slug}: Lula26 shard ${lula26} ≠ análise ${analysis.lula26}`)
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if (adversary26 !== int(analysis.adv26))
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failures.push(`${entry.slug}: Flávio26 shard ${adversary26} ≠ análise ${analysis.adv26}`)
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if (aptos26 !== int(analysis.te26))
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failures.push(`${entry.slug}: aptos26 shard ${aptos26} ≠ análise ${analysis.te26}`)
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if (comparecimento26 !== int(analysis.comp26))
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failures.push(
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`${entry.slug}: comp26 shard ${comparecimento26} ≠ análise ${analysis.comp26}`,
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)
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}
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// 2022 cross-check against the committed Teqo baseline (independent source).
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const baselineUnit = baseline.municipalities?.[entry.slug]
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if (!baselineUnit) {
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failures.push(`${entry.slug}: fora do baseline TSE 2014/2018/2022`)
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} else {
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const baselineSolla22 = baselineUnit.votesByYear?.['2022'] ?? null
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if (baselineSolla22 !== solla22)
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failures.push(`${entry.slug}: Solla22 baseline ${baselineSolla22} ≠ análise ${solla22}`)
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const baselineLula22 = baselineUnit.majoritarian2022?.president?.votes ?? null
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if (baselineLula22 !== lula22)
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failures.push(`${entry.slug}: Lula22 baseline ${baselineLula22} ≠ análise ${lula22}`)
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}
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const dLula = lula26 - lula22
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const dAdversary = adversary26 - adversary22
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const dSolla = solla26 - solla22
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const role = classifySecondRoundRole({ dLula, dSolla, solla26 })
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units[entry.slug] = {
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name: entry.name,
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kind: entry.kind,
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tseCityCode: entry.tseCityCode,
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ibgeCode: entry.ibgeCode,
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zone: zoneNumber,
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role,
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lula22,
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lula26,
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dLula,
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adversary22,
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adversary26,
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dAdversary,
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solla22,
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solla26,
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dSolla,
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aptos22,
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aptos26,
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comparecimento22,
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comparecimento26,
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abstencao22,
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abstencao26,
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brancosNulos22,
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brancosNulos26,
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validos22,
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validos26,
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}
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for (const key of Object.keys(totals)) totals[key] += units[entry.slug][key]
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}
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for (const [key, expected] of Object.entries(BA_PINS)) {
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if (totals[key] !== expected)
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failures.push(`total BA ${key}: esperado ${expected}, encontrado ${totals[key]}`)
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}
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failCheck(failures)
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const artifact = {
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version: 1,
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generatedAt: new Date().toISOString(),
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scope: 'BA — 2º turno Lula × Flávio',
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provenance:
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'TSE 2026 presidente 1º turno por seção (public/dados/potencial-secao-2026/BA.json, oficial) + análise 2º turno da campanha (analise-eleicoes-2026/nota-solla-2turno) para Solla 2026 e a fatia de 2022; 2022 validado contra bahia-federal-baseline.json.',
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sources: {
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shard: SHARD_PATH,
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baseline: BASELINE_PATH,
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analysisDir:
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'analise-eleicoes-2026/bahia (solla_municipios, ba_ausentes_bn, salvador_ze_v3, solla_ze_salvador)',
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},
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pins: BA_PINS,
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totals,
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units,
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}
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if (checkOnly) {
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console.log(`[${LABEL}] OK — ${Object.keys(units).length} unidades, totais batem com os pins.`)
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return
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}
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await writeRepoFile({
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label: LABEL,
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root: ROOT,
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relativePath: ARTIFACT_PATH,
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body: `${JSON.stringify(artifact, null, 2)}\n`,
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})
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console.log(
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`[${LABEL}] ${Object.keys(units).length} unidades · Lula ${totals.lula26} · Flávio ${totals.adversary26} · Solla ${totals.solla26}`,
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)
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}
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await main()
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